The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Detroit Lions.
Fantasy value — David Montgomery, RB (ADP: 98.24, RB21)
For those familiar with this scribe’s background, discussing Montgomery here was about as predictable as Snoop Dogg lighting up some high-grade Hindu Kush on 420 or any day of the week. It’s #MandatoryMontgomery after all. Yep, crank the Billy Idol classic “Flesh for Fantasy” in the background.
As Jahmyr Gibbs’ perceived value skyrockets (16.31 ADP, RB5), Montgomery’s near No. 100 average pick continues to hover in dividend-driving territory. If the veteran rusher stays healthy, he’s destined to renew his prolific red-zone and early-down role.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Last season, on 53.6% of the opportunity share, Montgomery finished top-five in red-zone touches (53), crossed the chalk 13 times and toed the RB1 line in 12-team 0.5 PPR formats, landing at RB13 in total scoring. Also top-20 among eligible rushers in yards after contact per attempt (3.05) and total missed tackles forced (48), he was rock solid no matter how one slices it.
In an established offense featuring a superb offensive line and with a middle-of-the-road strength of schedule (No. 18 for fantasy RBs), the Lions interior punisher should shimmy and shake his way to around 1100 combined yards with 11-14 total touchdowns. Again, going as a back-end RB2 in early drafts, there’s ample profit potential.
Prop pick — Amon-Ra St. Brown to lead NFL in receptions (+750, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
For fans of the old SXM “Fade the Noise” show, blare the Lady Gaga. Amon-Ra is about to burst eardrums and the bank.
CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are stiff competition, but Detroit’s slot machine is sure to spit out coins in catches. On a massive 30.2% target share last year (10.3 per game), the ultra-reliable weapon hauled in 119 receptions, second only to Lamb in the NFL. At No. 11 in route win rate, No. 23 in catchable target rate and top-10 in target accuracy, St. Brown should again be the apple of Jared Goff’s eye. Also, the Lions have the ninth-easiest projected strength of schedule for fantasy wide receivers.
Opportunity, track record, continuity and a favorable slate make St. Brown a divine buy at +750 to set the pace in receptions.
Team lean — Lions OVER 10.5 wins (-128, FanDuel)
- FanDuel offer: Bet $5 and get $200 in Bonus Bets
The defensive investments this offseason — especially in the rebuilt secondary — and stupendous offense point to a possible Super Bowl berth, which would be the first in franchise history.
ESPN’s Mike Clay gives Detroit a 52% or greater win probability in 15 games. Dan Campbell’s team has a mostly favorable No. 14 strength of schedule, well-oiled offense, excellent coaching staff, borderline top-10 defense and trench-owning offensive line. This could finally be the year the Lions roar last.
Far-fetched? Hey, the Cubs won a World Series in 2016. Streaks — even losing ones — are made to be broken.
At a minimum, Detroit wins 11 games.