The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Baltimore Ravens.
Fantasy value — Derrick Henry, RB (ADP: 32.76, RB10)
See hole. Smash hole. In Baltimore black, the Football Frankenstein is likely to strike even more fear into would-be tacklers.
In his final campaign with Tennessee where he operated behind a Titans line near the bottom in run-blocking metrics, Henry rarely saw sizable holes. That won’t be the case in his new digs. The Ravens’ offensive environment is a significant upgrade.
Last season, Baltimore’s big uglies ranked top-six in run-blocking efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus. Though some new pieces will have to mesh, wide running lanes should frequently develop. The line deserves ample credit, but so does the duality of reigning MVP Lamar Jackson.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
In 2023, Henry encountered eight or more men in the box 35.36% of the time, the second-highest percentage in the NFL. Because of Jackson’s explosiveness on RPO plays, slamming into stacked fronts should dramatically diminish for Henry. Keep in mind that, in Tennessee’s unfriendly offense, he still finished in the top 10 in YAC per attempt (3.32) and missed tackles forced (57).
Yes, John Harbaugh’s club has the sixth-hardest projected strength of schedule for fantasy RBs. However, with a 32.76 ADP (RB10), the former rushing king could again don a bejeweled crown. And don’t worry about Henry playing in his age-30 season. As witnessed on social media, the workout warrior will likely stiff-arm Father Time into an alternate universe.
Tally it up, and a top-five RB total in the range of 1,300 total yards and 12-15 touchdowns seems imminent. Also, the Ravens finished No. 1 in run rate last year, pounding the rock on 49.92% of their snaps.
Confidently overspend if necessary.
Prop pick — Mark Andrews OVER 6.5 receiving touchdowns (+110, DraftKings)
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Bitten by the unforgiving injury imp last season, the premier tight end missed seven games due to a cracked fibula. When on the field, he was the picture of efficiency inside the red zone, scoring six touchdowns in 10 regular-season games. Despite the missed time, Andrews also finished TE6 in total red-zone targets with 14. Bottom line, whenever Jackson is within striking distance of the end zone, he typically looks No. 89’s way.
With the 14th-easiest projected strength of schedule for fantasy tight ends and a QB coming off a campaign in which he notched the league’s fourth-best red-zone completion percentage (66.2%), Jackson and Andrews should connect for six fairly often. At plus money, it’s an attractive long-term investment. Just stay upright, Mark.
Team lean — Ravens OVER 10.5 wins (-135, DraftKings)
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With a middle-of-the-pack projected strength of schedule (No. 15) and top-10 rankings in offensive and defensive roster construction, Baltimore should again be one of the NFL’s best teams. ESPN’s Mike Clay gives Lamar and associates a 54% or greater win probability in 15 games.
When combined with their neutral SOS and balanced squad, crushing the over on 10.5 wins is buyable. Taking it a step further (at FanDuel), the Ravens are +1000 to finish the regular season with the best record and +550 to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Both are worth sprinkles.
If key players stay healthy, this is a team that should again push for a Super Bowl berth. Maybe, just maybe, this is the year Jackson conquers his postseason demons.