The 2024 Copa America will answer the most important question looming over the United States men’s national team.
Are the Americans ready for the 2026 World Cup?
Since the U.S. doesn’t have to qualify as one of three host nations (along with Canada and Mexico), it only has this summer’s tournament featuring CONMEBOL and CONCACAF teams to obtain an honest evaluation of its readiness for the next World Cup. And if the goal for hosting the 1994 World Cup was to grow the game in America, then U.S. Soccer’s objective for 2026 should be to ensure it competes with — and beats — the world’s best on home soil while performing on the globe’s biggest stage.
A disappointing Copa America — such as (gulp) not advancing out of the group stage — would prompt a necessary outcry for change, most specifically a review of Gregg Berhalter’s role as head coach. He surprisingly regained his job last summer after new U.S. Soccer sporting director Matt Crocker spent two months conducting a “worldwide search” only to decide the status quo should be maintained with Berhalter.
Crocker and U.S. Soccer need to know now if Berhalter should be the coach leading a talented but inconsistent USMNT into the World Cup. No data points will be more illuminating than the ones plotted ahead during the Copa America.
As for how well the Americans will fare in the tournament, that answer lies in the proposed bets below.
USA team top goal scorer — Christian Pulisic (+400, BetMGM)
At the 2022 World Cup, Berhalter’s USMNT struggled to score, manufacturing just three goals in four games. Timothy Weah, Pulisic and Haji Wright were the goal scorers in Qatar.
When the U.S. needs a goal, Pulisic typically provides it. Last Wednesday, he came through in a friendly against Brazil, producing the equalizer with a free kick. He’s also coming off a career-best 12 goals in a redemptive debut season with AC Milan in Italy, where he made 32 starts in Serie A.
The USMNT’s unsettled striker situation also favors Pulisic. Haji Wright, who scored 16 goals in 44 league games for Coventry City in England’s second-tier Championship, has the second-best odds (between +470 and +550) over presumptive starter Folarin Balogun, the No. 3 favorite between +500 and +600. Balogun managed only seven goals in 29 games for Monaco in France’s Ligue 1.
USA exact points in group — Six points (+250, FanDuel)
The optimist believes the U.S. can beat Bolivia, Panama and Uruguay and finish atop Group C with nine points (+500). The most seething #BerhalterOut member foresees an epic face-plant with zero points (+10000). The USMNT’s point total will lie somewhere between those extremes.
The Americans should beat Bolivia, the second-to-last team in South America's World Cup qualifying with a minus-10 goal differential, and they should bag all three points against Panama, who lost 5-1 the last time it faced a first-choice USMNT squad two years ago in World Cup qualifying. The U.S. should then lose to a superior Uruguay side to finish with six points — one more than its group-stage haul at the 2022 World Cup.
USA stage of elimination — Quarterfinals (-130, FanDuel)
For the Americans, the path to the July 14 final in Miami will probably go through two South American powers: Brazil and Colombia.
With a second-place finish in Group C, the USMNT would face the Group D winner, which figures to be Brazil. Its semifinal opponent would likely be Colombia. The U.S. faced both teams in pre-tournament friendlies, getting steamrolled by the Colombians in a 5-1 blowout loss before battling the Brazilians to a 1-1 draw.
To beat either team, the Americans will have had to gain some serious solidity in their backline and goalkeeping. It’s not an impossible task — but It seems a lot to ask.