Still smarting from the beating I took with my picks for the 5 vs. 5 showcase in Saudi Arabia, I’m stumbling back into the ring to make predictions on another big boxing weekend with three world title fights.
In Las Vegas, Gervonta Davis (29-0, 27 knockouts) defends his WBA lightweight championship against Frank Martin (18-0, 12 KOs). The undercard at the MGM Grand Garden Arena features David Benavidez (28-0, 24 KOs) against Oleksandr Gvozdyk (20-1, 16 KOs) for the interim WBC light heavyweight belt. Also on Saturday, IBF light welterweight champion Subriel Matias (20-1, 20 KOs) makes a title defense in his native Puerto Rico against Australian Liam Paro (24-0, 15 KOs).
I’m going to focus on the fight night in Vegas. And with the money lines offering little value — Davis is listed as a -700 favorite (DraftKings and FanDuel); Benavidez is favored as high as -500 (BetMGM) — the following wagers are much more worthy of investment.
Gervonta Davis to win in 7-12 rounds (+135, DraftKings)
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Like Davis, Martin has an unbeaten record with double-digit knockout victories. However, “The Ghost” does not possess the caliber of resume or the punching power of “Tank,” who’s on a three-fight streak of stoppage wins that includes a seventh-round KO of Ryan Garcia in April 2023.
Martin had to rally late to eke out a close unanimous decision victory against Artem Harutyunyan last July. He won’t get the chance to go the distance with Davis, who typically uses the early rounds to measure opponents before engaging and unleashing his one-punch KO power.
With 14 months between fights, Davis could experience some ring rust, but eventually, he’ll add to his list of knockouts. The inactivity and usual early patience will push this bout past the sixth round. In Davis’ last three KO wins at 135 pounds, two of them ended in the seventh round or beyond. (The Garcia superfight was held at a catchweight of 136 pounds.)
Davis has been unhappy with the fight promotion, and he was a no-show for the fight-week arrivals. So he has plenty of frustration to take out on Martin.
David Benavidez vs. Oleksandr Gvozdyk OVER 9.5 rounds (+100, BetMGM)
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Benavidez is moving up to light heavyweight because the super middleweight pastures aren’t so green (pun intended) now that a mega fight with undisputed 168-pound champion Canelo Alvarez looks unlikely. Asked why Alvarez insists on being paid $200 million to get in the ring with him, “The Monster” replied: “Because he knows damn well that’s his retirement plan.” Ouch.
I’ve gone back and forth on how Benavidez will beat Gvozdyk. In his 175-pound debut, the 27-year-old Arizona native could be content to outbox the 37-year-old Ukrainian for a unanimous decision win. Or Benavidez, with his youth and speed advantages, could end the fight by overwhelming Gvozdyk, who has three nondescript victories since a TKO loss to Artur Beterbiev, the holder of the IBF, WBC and WBO light heavyweight belts.
It would behoove Benavidez to not be overzealous in chasing a knockout against a true light heavyweight. I think he wisely proceeds with caution, happily stacks rounds and allows the fight to enter the 10th round.
Boxing record: 11-10, -2.67 units