The pick — Indiana Fever UNDER 20.5 first-quarter points vs. Atlanta Dream (-108, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets instantly
All right, I can practically feel that raised eyebrow all the way from over here.
I get it. This is a hyper-specific bet, and it’s at a pretty hefty price, too. But trust me, the numbers agree with this wager like a fine wine agrees with an Olive Garden entree.
(And hey, if you're into those plus-money wagers, you can get +105 for under 19.5 points at FanDuel.)
Plain and simple, Fever vs. Dream is a matchup of offensively challenged teams. Atlanta owns the WNBA’s second-worst offensive rating at 94.8 points per 100 possessions, while Indiana holds the third-worst at 95.9.
The first quarter is where the Dream’s defense thrives. In its last five games, Atlanta has the second-best first-quarter defensive rating in the league at a staggering 76.9. Over those same five games, it has handcuffed opponents to a mere 16.6 points per first quarter, also second-best in the W. The point is, this Dream team comes out HOT defensively in the first 10 minutes.
On the Fever side, heating up early hasn’t been their modus operandi. They’ve averaged a mere 18.6 points per first quarter over their last five games, ranking them eighth in first-quarter offensive rating out of 12 teams.
After an embarrassing loss to the league-worst Washington Mystics, Atlanta has all the motivation in the world to start this game hot and lean on the strength of its first-quarter defense to get the job done.
BONUS BET — Caitlin Clark OVER 4.5 rebounds vs. Dream (-132, FanDuel)
WNBA season record: 3-4, -1.35 units