You remember that scene in “The Other Guys” where The Rock and Samuel L. Jackson are standing on a rooftop and getting ready to jump to chase some bank robbers?
As they plan their decent, The Rock looks at Jackson and confidently says, “Aim for the bushes.” Jackson nods, they fist bump and they heroically leap off together … only to splatter on the concrete below.
Well, Game 1 of the NBA Finals felt a lot like that.
We were riding high about six minutes in. Dallas was scoring with ease. Boston was, too. The game looked like it was going to be a high-scoring, close affair, and then … we slammed into the concrete. The Celtics took over after being down 15-14 and never looked back in a 107-89 victory.
This time around, though, we won’t splatter. We’ll land in those bushes.
The pick — Mavericks team total OVER 103.5 points (-112, DraftKings)
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The Mavericks had arguably their worst game of the postseason, shooting 25.9% from three-point range, 63.2% from the free-throw line and not even breaking 90 points. Well, that changes in Game 2.
We’ve seen this script a couple of times before with Dallas. The Mavericks have an off-night (usually in Game 1) and then come roaring back in the second game.
Let me lay it out.
Dallas is 5-0 after a loss in the playoffs this season. And in those five victories, the Mavs averaged 113.2 points. In the regular season, they held the second-best ATS record after a loss at 64.9%.
All of that is to say this Dallas team LOVES to bounce back after losing and has proven it time and time again.
Now, the Celtics did look great in Game 1, so I don’t want to risk losing a spread bet. However, I’m confident the Mavericks will produce a better offensive performance in Game 2.
Kyrie Irving will score more than 12 points and shoot better than 0-for-5 from three. Derek Lively II won’t collect five fouls, and P.J. Washington will do better than 0-for-3 from distance.
Dallas will score in Game 2 — it’s up in the air whether the Mavs win — so let’s back a seemingly softer point total to get us a win and — unlike The Rock and Samuel L. — land us safely on the ground.
NBA postseason record: 9-10, -1.57