Alexander Zverev ended the reign of the old king of clay.
He’s being given little chance to stop the coronation of its new king.
Zverev ended 14-time French Open winner Rafael Nadal’s hope of one last miracle run with a comfortable first-round victory. In Sunday’s final, the fourth-seeded German faces No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz, the 21-year-old Spaniard who seems destined to replace his countryman Nadal as Roland Garros royalty.
Zverev owns a 5-4 edge in head-to-head matches, including 2-1 in majors, and two years ago, he beat Alcaraz in four sets in the French Open quarterfinals. However, Alcaraz, the pre-tournament favorite, remains a strong bet (between -275 and -280) to win his first-ever Roland Garros title, while Zverev is an underdog between +220 and +225.
Making French Open picks has been fun. Let’s go out with a bang on a plus-money wager.
The pick — Carlos Alcaraz to win and UNDER 36.5 games (+150, DraftKings)
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At major tournaments, Alcaraz and Zverev have played matches totaling 43 games (2022 French Open quarters), 27 games (2023 U.S. Open quarters) and 39 games (2024 Australian Open quarterfinals). Zverev won that last Grand Slam encounter, but Alcaraz dominated their last meeting in straight sets at Indian Wells in March.
Presently, Alcaraz is playing at a level well above Zverev, having just ousted soon-to-be world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in an epic five-set semifinal victory. What can bring drama to Sunday’s final is Zverez’s devastating serve. In the tournament, his 64 aces are nearly three times the number of Alcaraz — albeit 19 of them came against an ill-stricken Casper Ruud in the semis — and his first serve is averaging 127 mph, 10 mph faster than Alcaraz.
Zverez will need that booming first serve to gain free points and rack up service holds. Ultimately, though, he’ll succumb to Alcaraz’s repeated targeting of his forehand.
I was leaning toward choosing the over on the proposed game total, but the set betting market suggests a triumph by Alcaraz in three or four sets. Also, Ruud was well on his way to a third-straight French Open final, winning the first set 6-2 against Zverev before a stomach ache sapped the Norwegian's strength and energy.
Zverev, who’ll be playing in just his second Grand Slam final, will be feeling uneasy against the relentless power of Alcaraz, a two-time major champion. Finally, Nadal’s heir apparent will assume the throne at Roland Garros.
Tennis record — 3-0, 2.57 units