The pick — Mavericks +5 at Timberwolves (-110, DraftKings)
DraftKings offers:
Truth be told, this is one of my favorite playoff betting spots — Dallas after a defeat.
Much like that famous geyser in Wyoming, the Mavericks faithfully erupt after defeats. In the playoffs, they are 4-0 after a loss. During the regular season, they held a 63.9% win percentage after setbacks, ranking sixth-best in the NBA.
The point is, this team recovers. And Dallas is going to bounce back Thursday in Game 5.
Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t hitting four threes again (the last time he did that was almost three weeks ago). And I doubt the Timberwolves can sustain the 52.7% field-goal percentage they produced in Tuesday’s 105-100 victory.
The Mavs, who should get Dereck Lively back, will shoot better than 42% from the field. They have the offensive firepower in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to win games, and quite frankly, Dallas has been the better team in the Western Conference finals.
The Mavericks faltered in Game 4 after playing nearly perfect basketball in Games 1 through 3. But now Dallas gets back on its horse to do what it’s done all season — dominate after a loss.
NBA postseason record: 8-8, -0.48 units