The pick — Mavericks-Timberwolves UNDER Under 207.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
Unsexy, unpleasant, unnatural.
No, I’m not talking about me in high school. I’m talking about how it feels to bet a low-total under in a playoff game.
If we do have to bet an under, it might as well be a game featuring the NBA’s best defense (Minnesota) and its most underrated defense (Dallas). And we had the good fortune of Game 1 going over its total of 207 with a 108-105 Mavericks win.
For Game 2, I anticipate a slower matchup now that the Timberwolves have settled into the Western Conference finals after an emotional Game 7 win in the conference semis. Minnesota’s defense will be stronger and closer to the one that’s allowed 100.3 points per game in the playoffs. And we likely won’t see the Mavs, who are shooting 46.2% in the postseason, make 49.4% of their shots again.
On the flip side, don’t sleep on the Dallas defense. Like the movie “The Nice Guys,” its greatness has gone under people’s radar.
The Mavericks hold the sixth-best defensive rating in the playoffs, and they’ve jumped to No. 3 over their last five games. Even the eye test has shown Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving bringing defensive intensity for all 48 minutes. On Friday, Dallas should be able to slow down the Wolves a bit and prevent them from drilling 18 three-pointers like they did in Wednesday’s series opener.
So, yes, betting this low total under will certainly be unpleasant and unbearable, but hopefully, it will make us unbelievably rich.
NBA postseason record: 8-6, +1.48