The pick — Mavericks -3.5 vs. Thunder (-110, BetMGM)
Just call me Kelly McGillis in “Top Gun” because I’m in love with the Mavericks.
In what may be my squarest bet on this website, I’m riding with Luka Doncic and company to get the job done and close out the Thunder at home. Because, if we’re being honest, this series should be over right now. Game 4 saw the Mavericks handle Oklahoma City with ease — that is, until they inexplicably suffered a third-quarter drought en route to a 100-96 loss.
The Thunder, while talented, are still young. And for a good portion of this Western Conference semifinal, they have looked the part, playing like deer staring into headlights at times. Dallas is smarter and calmer under pressure, so I expect the home crowd to have an impact on inexperienced OKC squad facing elimination for the first time in these playoffs.
Also, the Mavs hold the seventh-best home defensive rating in the postseason at 109.2. Head coach Jason Kidd not only has an offense led by Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but he has a solid defense to round out his club, too.
Ultimately, I’m comfortable backing the more veteran squad in an elimination game — and backing the team that really should have closed out the series by now.
I feel the need ... the need to bet on the Mavericks.
NBA postseason record: 7-3, +3.33 units