The pick — J.J. McCarthy OVER pick 5.5 (+120, DraftKings)
BetMGM offers:
When it comes to McCarthy’s draft position, GIVE ME ALL THE SMOKE (SCREENS) SO I CAN FADE THE HELL OUT OF IT.
Listen, I hope nothing but the best for the former Michigan Wolverines quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft. But when I saw +120 odds on him being drafted higher than sixth overall, the value looked too delicious to pass up.
Last season, McCarthy ranked 35th in passing yards (2,991) and 37th in passing touchdowns (22), and he had five more passing attempts (332) than Jayden Daniels, who was fifth in passing yards (3,812) and second in passing TDs (40). Yes, McCarthy and the Wolverines won the national championship, riding the running game like Seabiscuit most of the season. I just don’t think McCarthy is a top-six draft pick.
His body of work doesn’t warrant a selection that high, given the amount of capital a team would have to give up to acquire him and the level of talent a team would pass up to draft him so early.
I’m fairly confident Caleb Williams, Daniels, Drake Maye and Marvin Harrison Jr. will be chosen among the first six picks. That means our plus money gets freaky if two players not named McCarthy are also taken among the top six.
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McCarthy’s number is set at 5.5 because the Chargers, who have the No. 5 pick, are open for business and the Giants, who own the No. 6 pick, need a quarterback even after backing up the Brinks truck for Daniel Jones last offseason. I don’t see a team trading up to five to take McCarthy in front of the Giants because I don’t think they will pull the trigger on McCarthy at six.
In 2019, the G-men reached for Daniel Jones with the No. 6 overall pick. So I can’t see the organization having the stones to make another controversial QB selection that early in the draft when there are several high-floor and high-ceiling guys still on the board.
With the No. 5 selection, a team would still have its choice of the top offensive lineman, top edge rusher, top cornerback, top tight end and two of the top three wide receivers. And even if a team needs a QB, passing up on those players for McCarthy doesn't make sense, especially when Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler are still available.
This time of the year, teams fill the airwaves with smoke to throw others off their draft scent. The crazy thing to me is that the McCarthy smokescreen started immediately after the college football season ended, and it only intensified as the draft got closer.
Maybe I’m too stubborn and should’ve listened to all of the J.J. truthers over the past few months, but my eyes won’t let me do it. If I’m wrong, I’ll gladly take the “L” here. However, I think this will be one of those times when I’ll be happy that I didn’t inhale.