The odds of newly acquired Packer backer Josh Jacobs usurping Christian McCaffrey for top RB fantasy honors may be a wildly spun Aaron Rodgers conspiracy theory, but it’s within the range of outcomes.
In the eyes of this upbeat but often beaten-down Bears enthusiast, Green Bay’s continued QB success is a ceaseless frustration. From Brett Favre to Rodgers to Jordan Love, the Pack just continues to trot out ridiculously effective gunslingers — passers who simply buoy the statistical outputs of those around them.
In his new digs, Jacobs is bound to feel like all of us after a 10-hour sleep in the aftermath of a Vegas bender. Last season with the Raiders, he encountered eight-plus men in the box 21.46% of the time, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. In fact, he ranked first in number of box defenders seen per rush attempt (7.2) as tracked by PlayerProfiler. Given Love’s growing production, friendlier fronts are a foregone conclusion for Jacobs in his inaugural Packers campaign.
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Other advanced data in 2023 painted an uglier picture for the two-time Pro Bowl rusher.
Among RBs with at least 100 carries, Jacobs’ 2.35 YAC per attempt ranked a ghastly RB47, according to Pro Football Focus. Equally discouraging, he tallied a 12.1 missed tackle percentage and finished RB48 in breakaway run percentage (runs of 15 or more yards). Blame the bum quad all you want, but Jacobs was rather inefficient when healthy last season.
One promising note: Jacobs, who had 50-plus catches in two of the last three seasons, is a reliable receiver and is bound to slide into a catch-heavy role with Aaron Jones’ departure to Minnesota. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has talked up Jacobs' expected sizable pass-down role this offseason.
In total, 17 to 22 touches per game are likely for Green Bay’s new workhorse. Yes, the Packers were a disappointing No. 23 in run-blocking efficiency last year, but with two picks among the top 41 selections in the NFL Draft, general manager Brian Gutekunst is expected to add frontline beef.
Due to the expected hefty volume and the environment upgrade, Jacobs is not only a fantasy bargain at his 40.44 ADP (RB11), but he’s also a worthy bet investment on the OVER for rushing yards (1000.5) at, most enticingly, plus money (+100, DraftKings).