The pick — Warriors ML at Kings (-140, BetMGM)
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A lot went right for the Golden State Warriors this season.
Steph Curry played more than 70 games for the first time since 2016-17. Jonathan Kuminga emerged in his third NBA season as a rim-attacking scorer. New general manager Mike Dunleavy hit on his first two draft picks with Brandin Podziemski (19th overall) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (57th). And the team won 46 games, two more than last season.
And yet with all of those positives, the Warriors still wound up 10th in the Western Conference. Tenth.
All empires fall. Golden State’s dynasty is sliding further to its end. Tuesday could be the season finale for a prideful but flawed Warriors squad when it faces the rival Kings in the West’s 9 vs. 10 Play-In Tournament game in Sacramento.
Plenty went wrong to put the Warriors in this predicament. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins got into prolonged shooting slumps. Chris Paul got hurt. And Draymond Green got suspended — not once, but twice — for avoidable on-court incidents.
Big decisions surely loom this summer when Golden State is expected to implement severe cost cutting to its record $400 million payroll (luxury tax penalties included). Will Thompson stay? Will Paul go? Will Dunleavy package the talented Kuminga and other assets to land a true second superstar to ease the scoring burden on Curry, who will be 37 next year in the penultimate season of his contract?
[ NBA Play-In Prop Bet: Trey Murphy III vs. Lakers ]
Those are the pressing questions for an uncertain Warriors future. The present provides an opportunity to keep slim hopes alive of earning the West’s No. 8 seed. That play-in path will take place exclusively on the road, where Golden State, oddly, has played its best basketball this season.
The Warriors posted the NBA’s fifth-best away record at 25-16, a mark that includes an October victory at Golden 1 Center. Also, Golden State eliminated Sacramento in last year’s playoffs with an epic Game 7 win in Sacramento behind Curry’s 50 points.
The teams split the season series at 2-2, but much has changed since they last played in late January.
Sacramento’s offense took a hit with the late-season injuries to Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. The blessing in disguise has been an improved defense with the increased minutes for Keon Ellis and Davion Mitchell, most notably along the arc. In April, Sacramento surrendered just 34.1% three-point shooting (eighth in the NBA) and recorded a defensive rating of 106.7 (No. 2 behind Philadelphia’s 101.4).
Ellis and Mitchell will be the primary defenders on Curry, but they’ll need to make shots to support De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Despite the Warriors’ newfound defensive solidity with Jackson-Davis as the starting center, they can be very generous on the perimeter at times (see New Orleans’ 20-for-38 shooting on threes last Friday).
Golden State’s biggest concern has been Curry’s shooting slump. In the season’s second half, he has shot just 37.9% from three — well below his career 42.6% mark — and his noticeable fatigue has showed up in high-turnover nights late in the season (four or more in three of his last seven games). Luckily for the Warriors, Thompson has resembled his old Splash Brother self in April, averaging 23.1 points and shooting 49.6% from the field (43.7% on threes). Wiggins also has returned to the two-way effectiveness that keyed the team’s title run two years ago.
Curry and Green both sat out Sunday’s regular-season win against Utah, so the Warriors’ two most important players should be rested and ready. They won’t have Gary Payton II (calf) to chase around Fox, but they’ll have the tag team of Jackson-Davis and Green to wrestle with Sabonis.
If anyone knows how to muck up the Golden State offense, it’s Brown, Kerr’s former assistant. But without Monk, the Kings figure to be too shorthanded offensively to keep up with a Warriors group that was sixth in offensive rating (117.0) and third in defensive rating (107.8) during a 10-2 finish that included road wins against the Heat, Magic, resurgent Rockets and Lakers.
There’s plenty of uncertainty surrounding Golden State. They know they’ll have at least one more play-in game after turning off the lights (and light beam) to the Kings’ season.