Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — SGP: UConn ML, Purdue +16.5, UNDER 156.5 (+120, BetMGM)
BetMGM offers:
Endemic to only the Arizona low country and northern Sonora in Mexico, the saguaro cactus can stretch as high as 40 or more dizzying feet toward the scorching desert sun. It is majestic, towering and extremely prickly. Any human who crosses its path is promptly mesmerized by its enormity and intoxicating beauty.
Appropriately, the NCAA Tournament’s championship game will be played in the Land of Colossal Cacti. Two on-court giants, 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and 7-2 Donovan Clingan, will meet eye-to-eye for trophy rights. Whichever big blossoms best on both ends is most likely to set the winning tone from start to finish.
The matchup of these No. 1 seeds was always the most predictable outcome. Though heavy underdogs North Carolina State and Alabama reached college basketball’s pinnacle at the Final Four, Purdue and UConn colliding in what could be an unforgettable title game was the forgone conclusion. It’s why, according to Yahoo Men’s Bracket Mayhem, over 44% of entries picked the powerhouses to square off for the championship.
Since March 1, the Boilermakers have pounded the competition. Over that 10-game span, Matt Painter’s crew ranks No. 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to BartTorvik. And because of Edey, Purdue has snagged a second chance on a mind-blowing 37.5% of its possessions.
Also, the Boilers have converted early and often at the free-throw line, hit numerous triples (41.9 3PT% since the postseason began) and dished out hell on defense (46.9 2PT% D and 29.4 3PT% D in their last 10 games). They exhibit few on-paper weaknesses.
Danny Hurley’s well-drilled and experienced Huskies are nearly flawless in their own execution. Since the calendar flipped to March, they’re No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency. And they’ve clobbered the competition while mostly coasting to Monday’s showdown at State Farm Stadium.
I understand the economic reasons, but basketball games in football stadiums are patently dumb.
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) April 6, 2024
Over its last 11 games, UConn has been highly active on the offensive glass (34.9 OR%), tremendous on defense (40.5 2PT% D, 30.9 3PT% D) and generally unyielding with the rock (12.8 TO% offense). The Huskies, nearly identical to their adversary, are practically impeccable in every way.
In this whole-shebang battle, three keys are clear as the Glendale skies:
1. With occasional interior double-teams likely, who wins the shooting contest along the arc?
2. Will turnovers do in Purdue? (It’s No. 205 in TO% offense since March 1.)
3. Who wins the battle inside — Edey or Clingan?
Of course, officiating, bench play and coaching moves are major X-factors. However, the team that responds favorably in two of the three aforementioned questions will earn the “One Shining Moment” and confetti celebration.
Both teams trot out unique paint patrollers. Both have productive guards. And in totality, both are near mirror images. Living in the middle one last time, UConn will solidify its claim as a modern-day blue blood in what should be a highly competitive affair.
Cast the longest shadow, Cling Kong.
Season record: 34-32, +6.55 units
BONUS TIME — Donovan Clingan to win MOP (+190, MGM)