Multiple times each week, resident action seeker Brad Evans will attempt to take the ‘books yard on his favorite MLB prop bets. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
NOTE: Due to increased football content responsibilities, we’re channeling the sprint energy of Noah Lyles on baseball pieces moving forward with an emphasis on QUICK reasonings.
Wednesday, August 21 — Two-leg: Jameson Taillon OVER 17.5 outs, Nick Castellanos hit (+118, DraftKings)
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Jameson Taillon OVER 17.5 outs vs. Tigers
A hint of fall will hang in the air at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. Game-time temps should be in the low 60s and could dip well into the 50s as the action unfolds. For a starter like Taillon who usually soaks through multiple jerseys, the crispness is sure to feel welcomed.
The Cubs’ underrated innings eater has performed spectacularly within the brick-lined walls along Clark and Addison. In 10 home starts, Taillon owns a 2.56 ERA. He’s in the midst of a rough stretch with a 5.34 ERA in his last five starts, but he’s completed at least six innings in nine of his last 12 contests.
Detroit’s offense isn't trotting out Cecil Fielder or Ty Cobb. Over the Tigers’ last dozen games, they are a rather clawless No. 22 in wRC+, averaging a modest 3.75 runs per game.
Taillon chills opponent bats over six strong.
Nick Castellanos hit at Braves
Hotter than summer temps in Death Valley is Castellanos. This month, he’s hit safely in 13 of 17 games, and over the last two weeks, he owns a blistering .342 average and .974 OPS. Hitting 39 points higher against left-handers compared to right-handers, he’s a recommended matchup play facing a port sider who he’s logged considerable success against.
When digging in against Atlanta's Max Fried, Castellanos has broken out a flamethrower, firing 11 hits in 18 at-bats for a .611 average and 1.483 OPS. Pure ownership.
Adding to the argument, Fried has allowed a 7.90 ERA and .286 average over his last three starts. And even more embarrassing, in a pair of encounters with the Phillies this season, he’s surrendered 13 hits and eight earned runs in 6 2/3 innings.
Given Castellanos’ history and Fried’s recent repulsiveness, the Phillies outfielder shoots a pitch or three into the gap.
Pitcher Prop season record: 40-56, -7.19 units