Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — Iowa +3.5, Game OVER 161.5 (+100, MGM)
Whether talked about or seen via State Farm ads, celebrity fan endorsements on social media, sports memorabilia battles or record-smashing highlights, you can’t escape her.
The biggest star in college sports is the unrivaled queen, Cailtin Clark.
Possibly the permanent mayor of Iowa City, she rightfully has earned her place at city hall. However, her popularity has masked the ascension of the other local basketball residents — Fran McCaffery’s forgotten guys.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]
Squarely and precariously sitting on the bubble, an almost unfathomable development considering they were 13-10 overall and 5-7 in the Big Ten just weeks ago, the Hawkeyes have a realistic chance of bouncing into the NCAA Tournament field. To say Sunday’s game against conference nemesis Illinois is big would be a gross understatement.
Iowa’s renaissance is steeped in its offensive execution. Precise backdoor cuts, free-throw cashes, Tony Perkins midrange jumpers, Payton Sandfort trey bombs and Josh Dix daggers have the Hawkeyes humming. In their past nine games, they’ve scored 1.270 points per possession, the ninth-highest rate in the country. They’ve also converted 55.4% from two, 35.0% from three and 78.7% at the charity stripe since Feb. 1. Again, they've really clicked. No Mount Fran staredowns needed.
This Fran McCaffery stare-down 💀 pic.twitter.com/BX5x7jBOv3
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) February 25, 2023
Defense, however, is a different story. At No. 327 in effective-field goal percentage D over the past four weeks, Iowa routinely rolls out the red carpet, particularly from three where it has surrendered 41.8% shooting. Rough.
In myriad ways, Illinois is a statistical reflection of its border state contestant. Brad Underwood’s ballers are numero uno nationally in offensive efficiency since Feb. 1, converting an absolutely absurd 1.326 points per possession. Deadly around the rim (57.6 2PT% last nine games) and occasionally from three (36.9 3PT%), the Illini, like the Kentucky Wildcats, can pile up the points in bunches. Terrence Shannon, Marcus Domask and do-it-all “center” Coleman Hawkins comprise quite the triumvirate.
Almost identical to Iowa, Illinois is overly forgiving defensively. At one point a top-10 unit nationally per eFG data, the Illini have tumbled down the mountainside, as evidenced by their No. 311 placement in the category since early February. And with their slotting at No. 359 in 3-point percentage D over that span, they removed the padlock along the arc and tossed it in the nearest and deepest lake.
Illinois has a distinct rebounding edge and is a respectable 5-5 straight-up away from Champaign, but with Iowa’s backs firmly pressed against the wall, it’s the centerpiece of the above SGP.
Reverse jinx for this Illini grad/backer? You know it.
Season record: 13-12, +1.68 units
BONUS TIME — Penn State -1 vs. Maryland (-110, MGM)