Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away and the sportsbooks are slowly trickling out action gamifying the day. Naturally, The Gaming Juice’s resident bracket geek, Brad Evans, scours the betting landscape to uncover interesting, and hopefully, profitable futures. Fade or follow? That’s up to YOU!
Pick: Providence to make the NCAA Tournament (-130, DraftKings)
On Jan. 3 against Seton Hall, star forward Bryce Hopkins crumbled into a heap at midcourt and screamed in agony. A gut-wrenching silence overtook the capacity crowd inside the Dunk. As he was helped off the floor, the 12,000-plus in attendance presumably knew his season was over.
The pain. The heartache. The torment. Hopkins, who tore his ACL, was indeed done. As a result, questions about Providence’s NCAA Tournament viability were immediately and fairly raised.
Whether through fans' Coors Light tall boy sacrifices, coach Kim English’s leadership or forward Josh Oduro’s elevated execution, the Friars have weathered the storm. With their heads above water in a power-packed Big East (the second-best conference in the land, according to KenPom’s analytics), they shouldn’t have to sweat out Selection Sunday. Why? Here are three reasons.
1. Quality wins. Wisconsin, Marquette, at Seton Hall, Creighton and at Xavier. They are the five Quadrant 1 victories on Providence’s resume. Contextually, that’s more quality wins than sure-fire single-digit seeds Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Illinois, Clemson, BYU and others. Essentially, the Friars have satisfied the “Who you beat” argument. Equally important, they have additional Q1 opportunities remaining.
2. Strength of schedule. Playing in a rough and tumble league has its rewards. Providence’s No. 240 non-conference SOS leaves much to be desired, but its No. 50 overall SOS proves it hasn’t encountered only patsies. Other residents of Bubbleville (e.g. Gonzaga, Virginia, Wake Forest and New Mexico) pale comparatively in the measurement. With future rigorous matchups scheduled, the number will only climb. This satisfies the “Who you played” prerequisite.
3. Zero black eyes. Against Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 competition — soft opponents who can only devalue at-large worth — the Friars are an impeccable 10-0. Texas A&M (five bad Ls), Seton Hall (two), Utah (one) and other projected double-digit seeds can’t claim the same.
Bottom line, Providence faithful: If your beloved boys go at least 2-2 to finish the regular season and advance just one round in the Big East Tournament, Friar Dom (HE HAS NO SOUL!) will bust a move on the dance floor.
Yes, the Friars have a pair of daunting matchups remaining (at Marquette, home against UConn), and Hopkins’ absence will be considered. However, with beatable opponents Villanova and Georgetown also remaining, they should achieve what’s required.
And, please, don’t spout lazy, “But their No. 55 NET” arguments. Remember, the NET replaced the RPI primarily as a sorting tool for the Selection Committee. Independently, it’s not a be-all, end-all numeric.
Of course, there are numerous variables involved (e.g. how bubblicious teams perform down the stretch), but PC should be closer to -200 than -130 in this very buyable March Madness market.
As my free picks spreadsheet shows, I’m a willing investor.