It all comes down to this. In two quite meaningful playoff-minded Saturday games, Brad Evans, naturally, spices up the action firing off on a pair of player props. Fade or follow? That’s up to YOU!
The Pick: Nico Collins to have most receiving yards in game at Steelers (+135, DraftKings)
In a town with a rich football history, Collins could soon join the likes of Andre Johnson, Haywood Jefferies and Ernest Givens among local pass-catching immortals. His 4,347 yards accumulated in 66 career games already ranks fourth on the Texans’ all-time receiving yards list.
Against Pittsburgh’s Soft Curtain secondary, his slick route-running, open-field explosiveness and high catch volume are sure to boost the career resume. The Steelers enter the postseason a modest No. 13 in dropback EPA D since Week 10. Over the regular season, they surrendered the fifth-most yards to the wide receiver position. In total, nine wideouts crossed the century mark against them.
Yes, Collins will most often clash with CB Joey Porter Jr. The denying DB has given up a mere 48.3% catch rate and 56.2 passer rating to his assignments. The mano-y-mano matchup, admittedly, isn't the greatest.
Still, Houston's downfield dynamo doesn't have the same win chances the Chicago Bears had against Green Bay with under six minutes remaining (4.6%). Over 15 regular season contests, he averaged 8.0 targets per game and ranked No. 17 or better in total air yards, yards per route run and yards after catch.
It's possible DK Metcalf reaches into the stands and bitch slaps this bet. Off his two-game suspension, Pittsburgh's WR1 is slightly motivated. But the on-paper matchup combined with CJ Stroud's established rapport with Collins suggest he's the proper play.
Add to your growing legend, Nico.
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - Texans +7.5, DK Metcalf UNDER 4.5 receptions, Kenneth Gainwell 5+ receptions (+175, theScore)