In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future -- whether betting the OVER or UNDER. Today he examines a still fairly wide open Offensive Rookie of the Year market.
The Pick: Tyler Shough to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+135, BetMGM)
In the Mispronunciation Hall of Fame alongside other notable names before him (See Younghoe Koo), Shough (Its proper pronunciation is “Shuck”) has shockingly pulled up a seat at the Offensive Rookie of the Year table.
Largely, it’s been a lost season for the Fleur de lis. Though they’re much improved compared to the early season iteration -- the Saints have won their last four straight -- Kellen Moore’s club remains a work in progress. The days of Alvin Kamara juking dudes, Drew Brees splitting secondaries and Jimmy Graham dunking on goal posts are long in the past.
At 6-10 entering Week 18 and outside the top-25 in EPA per play offense on the season, the Saints seem tepid at best. However, the bayou waters are warmer than most think.
Shough hasn't exactly sucked down the regular season’s homestretch. Unbelievably, he’s No. 9 in adjusted completion percentage among qualifying passers, posting a respectable 9:5 TD:INT split in nine starts. A modern day multidimensional contributor, he’s also added 152 ground yards and two rushing scores. Most impressively, the Louisville product has completed 71.4% of his red-zone attempts.
Yes, at 28 years-old, the rookie is a modern day Chris Weinke. Still, his steady all-fields accuracy and subsequent per game production has raised eyebrows. Ranking No. 9 among fantasy passers in overall points since Week 12, he’s outperformed the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix over the stretch.
Some all-in buyers have already anointed him a “franchise quarterback.” He has performed well over a considerable sample size, but given his advanced age, the middle-aged rook may be producing at his peak.
No matter what the future holds, Shough deserves enough votes to take home the OROY hardware. Tetairoa McMillan, off one catch for 5 yards against Seattle in Week 17, shouldn’t be the heavy favorite (-110). TreVeyeon Henderson (+750), Emeka Egbuka (+1100) and Jaxson Dart (+1400), too, have had their moments, but the Saints slinger has proven far more consistent comparably over the season’s second half.
Practically unfathomable after replacing Spencer Rattler at the controls in Week 8, the once long shot could soon add a trophy to the case. Ball out Week 18 in Atlanta and his odds in the OROY market are bound to flip. The plus money price noted above may soon disappear.
It’s not luck. The often butchered Shough could soon make backers bucks.