The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Nico Collins anytime TD vs. Raiders (+110, BetMGM) -- The never-chase-last-week’s-numbers crowd will read this and shake a clenched fist, but sometimes guys do detonate in consecutive games. Nuclear Nico could once again scotch earth. The Raiders should be contracted from the NFL. Since Week 10, the Sliver and Whack are No. 26 in dropback EPA D. This season, they've conceded the 10th-most wide receiver yards and 16 touchdowns to the position. Slated to most often square off with CB Darien Porter -- he's allowed a 62.5% catch rate and 13.4 yards per catch to his assignments -- Collins should gain a leg up. A CJ Stroud favorite near the goal-line, he's No. 5 in red-zone targets (18) and has scored seven TDs in 13 games. Whether on a short-field quick strike or long bomb, he's a cashable commodity at plus odds.
BetAlytics Projection: 49.3% TD chance
2. Omarion Hampton OVER 11.5 rush attempts at Cowboys (+100, BetMGM) -- Another week and another seemingly underpriced number attached Hampton's rush attempts. Running this bet back but at a lower total, the Bolts basher should have his number called often in Little D. Hardly a train with square wheels on the Island of Misfit Toys, Hampton has occasionally resembled his early season tackle-breaking self. In seven games played, a blue-pill-popping 75.2% of his yards have come after initial contact. LAC offensive coordinator Greg Roman maintains the split between Hampton and Kimani Vidal will be determined by the hottest hand game-to-game. That raises the risk slightly, but against an opponent running backs have logged considerable success against, the rookie still has strong odds of receiving the workload required. Since Week 10, Dallas is a somewhat rotten No. 20 in rush EPA D. Overall, 11 RBs have carried the rock a minimum 12 times against the 'Boys. In a contest the Chargers need to secure a playoff spot, Hampton touches the pill 12+ times for the seventh time in eight games.
BetAlytics Projection: NA
3. Caleb Williams OVER 213.5 pass yards vs. Packers (-115, BetMGM) -- Micah Parsons succumbing to a season-ending knee injury is akin to Ralphie shooting his eye out in 'A Christmas Story.' The trajectory of the once promising year was permanently altered. Pressure on the Packers' beatable corners now mounts. Since Week 10, Jeff Hafley's D is a terribly uninspiring No. 25 in dropback EPA. Yes, they've allowed only 6.31 pass yards per attempt and 208.6 pass yards to QBs this season, but Parson's absence changes the calculus greatly. To take advantage, look for Ben Johnson to lean more on Williams' arm than the powerful legs of Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift. Williams is a disappointing No. 38 in adjusted percentage and Rome Odunze's foot setback increases doubt, but he's chucked 214 or more yards in seven games. In chilly, but not Icelandic conditions, Chicago's signal caller warms the box score.
BetAlytics Projection: 210.93
4. Jameson Williams OVER 66.5 receiving yards vs. Steelers (-115, BetMGM) -- Fast track, torrid performances since Week 9 and a primo matchup against a secondary several passing attacks have routinely skewered this season. Jamo's late-season surge is set to continue. Likely gifting good little gaming girls and boys with chunk gain after chunk gain, Williams seems destined to put a star on the tree. He's raced past the number needed in five of his last six games. Equally promising, he's top 10 this season in total YAC (382), yards per target (11.6) and yards per reception (18.0). His primary projected assignment CB Joey Porter Jr. has performed admirably, allowing only a 45.7% catch rate and 51.0 passer rating this season. Still, as a collective, Pittsburgh has yielded the seventh-most yards to WRs. In total, a dozen wideouts have sprinted past 67 yards against them. At home and in a critical game for Detroit's playoff hopes, Jamo jams.
BetAlytics Projection: 98.10 receiving yards
5. Kirk Cousins OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+112, DraftKings) -- He moves in the pocket with the dexterity of an oversized mall Santa, but if given time to plant and fire, Captain Kirk has shown he can still sling it. In four starts, he's twirled at least two touchdown passes, completing an appreciable 52.5% of his red-zone attempts. Most encouraging, Drake London is on schedule to finally return from nursing a tender PCL. With his No. 1 back in uniform, Kyle Pitts coming off a game that singlehandedly sunk fantasy title hopes and Bijan Robinson dancing around dudes in the short-field, the venerable passer has significant multi-TD potential against a wingless Cardinals D. Since Week 10, Arizona is No. 30 in dropback EPA defense. Over its last five games, four QBs have connected for at least a pair of touchdowns against it. In the desert, Cousins proves a statistical oasis.
BetAlytics Projection: 0.96 passing TDs
Season record: 30-33, -2.13 units