Week 16 Fantasy Flames: Hark! Godwin to deliver

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Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points; RB: 12 fantasy points [10 for shockers], WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; .5 PPR).  

CJ Stroud, Texans, QB

Don't be frightened, gamer. Open yourself up and embrace the potential disappointment -- or the possible delightful result. 

Be a loud and proud member of Team Stroud. 

The Texans are known for their tenacious D and Nico Collins. Though you've seen the QB randomly in Applebee's commercials throughout the season, most outside of H-Town or Columbus rarely think about the former Ohio State standout. He's not a brilliant star by any stretch, but similar to the Ultimate Trio offered the restaurant chain, he can satisfy in a pinch. 

Currently No. 22 in QB per game fantasy scoring, Stroud has only occasionally ventured into QB1 territory in 12-team leagues. Including last week against lowly Arizona, he's crossed the 20 fantasy point mark only three times in 11 starts. Equally flavorless under the hood, he's outside the top 18 in five different completion percentage categories -- including deep ball (QB27) and red-zone (QB19). He can raise his generally low floor with occasional scampers, but falling short of 15 ground yards in three straight, he's mostly unreliable in the category. 

Despite the blandness, Stroud should be heavily debated in Round 2 of the fantasy playoffs. 

Vegas is like this gambler at roughly 2:13 AM at any MGM property on The Strip -- drunk and penniless. In almost every facet, the Raiders are indisputably rancid. For the purposes of the recommendation above, they enter the week No. 26 in dropback EPA D over their last five. Stretching out they're vulnerabilities over the season, they've given up 7.27 yards per attempt, 221.9 pass yards per game, 1.79 passing touchdowns per game and the 14th-most fantasy points to QBs. In total, nine signal callers in 14 games have achieved flame status against them. 

Houston may have a 95% chance of punching its postseason ticket, but with a playoff spot and positioning far from wrapped up, it bombards a bankrupt Las Vegas defense. 

Join the cause. 

Fearless Forecast: 236 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 18 rushing yards, 21.6 fantasy points

Jordan Mason, Vikings, RB

Occasionally during memorable fake football playoff runs, an unsung hero dons a cape and carries you to the Promised Land. Much to the chagrin of your opponent, the shrewd lineup insertion leaves the competition befuddled as you take the next step in backing up the smack. 

This week, elevating Mason from bench to RB2 or FLEX could be that brainiac move.

Minnesota has absolutely nothing to play for. Neither do the hapless Giants. Both were ruined by injuries. Both greatly underwhelmed. And both are surely thinking about waves crashing on a sandy beach in some tropical locale. 

Operating as Kevin O'Connell's between-the-tackles bulldozer, Mason has steadily earned roughly 40% of the team's opportunity share working in concert with finesse complement Aaron Jones. Surrendering most, if not all, pass down work, he's become a Tyler Allgeier or Kyle Monangai type in Minnesota's offense. In other words, when the team needs a tough interior gain, he's the trusted masher. An impressive No. 12 in YAC per attempt (3.27) among qualifying RBs, he's gained 70.9% of his grounds yards after initial contact. Pounder. 

The Giants have consistently ranked at or near the bottom in rush EPA defense the entire season. Entering Week 16, they've surrendered a downright delectable 5.89 yards per carry, 123.6 rush yards per game, 17 total touchdowns and the third-most fantasy points to RBs. Only the Bengals and Jets have proven friendlier. 

If the version of JJ McCarthy witnessed in Week 15 at Dallas makes the trip to Jersey, Mason unquestionably stands to benefit -- whether between the 20s or near the goal-line. 

Assuming his number is called 10+ times, bank on him flirting with top-20 RB numbers this Sunday. 

Be that unexpected savior, Jordan. 

Fearless Forecast: 11 carries, 52 rush yards, 1 touchdown, 1 reception, 5 receiving yards, 12.2 fantasy points

Chris Godwin, Buccaneers, WR

Hark! The herald angels do indeed sing.  

Yes, that's a slight embellishment, but in Week 15, a heavenly performance is possible for Tampa's celestial slot man. 

For Baker Mayfield and cohorts to secure a postseason spot, they may need some divine intervention. The Saints extended a helping hand in Week 15, but as Todd Bowles' postgame F-bombing clearly proved, Florida's swashbucklers squandered their own opportunity to distance themselves against the floundering Falcons. 

Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are sure to sport higher yardage numbers in the player props market, but Godwin is in a great position to overachieve. Carolina slot corner Chau Smith-Wade is one of the friendliest interior DBs in the league. This season, he's allowed the ninth-most yards of any SCB and a 64.3% catch rate to his assignments. The Panthers have surrendered the 10th-fewest fantasy points to WRs, but they're a lowly No. 26 in EPA per pass D largely due to their inside coverage susceptibility.  

Limited to six games due to various physical setbacks, Godwin has scored only once and crossed the 50-yard mark just twice this season. Though his advanced analytics profile is comparable to your Aunt Patty's holiday Jell-O mold, his target share (20.0%) is quite consumable -- and so is the matchup. 

The Bucs have a 77% chance of making the postseason according to NFL.com, but that number will tumble down the mountainside with a loss in Charlotte. With four weeks remaining, it's not quite a must-win scenario, but Bowles probably doesn't have the energy to muster another expletive-laced tirade. To prevent that possibility, bank on Baker spinning several spirals in Godwin's general direction. 

Glory to the reborn fantasy king.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.8 fantasy points