Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: A.J. Brown OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)
The “Inner Excellence" ranking on Amazon has plummeted. His numbers have slowed. And frustration has mounted.
Once a widely perceived WR1 in gaming circles, Brown has become the epitome of inconsistency. Those who invested high fantasy draft capital in him can certainly empathize.
Trusting the preeminent downfield weapon has become an exercise in futility. After all, the Eagles remain largely conservative, running the rock the third-most times per game (47.6%) of any NFL team. Whether balls to Saquon Barkley’s belly or Jalen Hurts tush pushes, the steady ground dose has minimized Brown’s vertical efforts.
As Jim Murphy laid out in his best seller mentioned above, it’s all about going with the ‘flow.’
This week, however, presents a ripe opportunity. Brown is in a prime position to regain fantasy points lost.
First blush, the bout isn’t the most appealing. Green Bay enters the week No. 14 in dropback EPA defense, surrendering the seventh-fewest yards to wide receivers. Seven WRs, though, have notched 57 yards or more against them this season.
Brown's primary head-to-head adversary, CB Kaisean Nixon, is a better-than-advertised matchup. According to PFF, the Packers DB has allowed the 35th-most yards of any pass defender, giving up three total touchdowns and a 97.3 passer rating to assignments. Enticing.
Our friends at mathematically minded BetAlytics are also buyers, projecting 64.80 yards for Philly’s long-bomb specialist. They're smart.
Throw in Brown's healthy targets share (7.3 per game), yards per route run (1.76) and deep-ball opportunities (1.6 targets of 20+ yards per game), and he’s an attractive tail. Most promising, he’s topped the needed number in three of his past five games.
At what seems like an tempting number, this gambler is getting down with Brown.
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - Eagles +7.5, Saquon Barkley UNDER 76.5 rush yards, Christian Watson 10+ yard reception (+210, ESPN Bet)