The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. George Kittle anytime TD at Texans (+200, BetMGM) -- REVENGE GAME is a popular narrative that often pays. Another one: Wagering on the spokesperson for National Tight Ends Day during his annual pigskin celebration. There’s no better way to close last week’s donut shop than getting force fed targets from either Mac Jones or Brock Purdy. Kittle’s offensive line tethering last week was a plus (See CMC’s rush numbers), but it came at an expense. Kittle’s second-longest TE catch streak in NFL history snapped at 114 games. Most encouraging, the reactivated Gold Panner logged 84.4% of the snap share. With the rust shaken off and give the special occasion, he’s a tremendous value at +200 in the anytime TD market. Yes, the Texans enter the week No. 1 in dropback EPA D. This season, they’ve allowed only 4.5 receptions per game, 37.3 yards per game and one touchdown to plus-sized targets. Still, the "holiday" adds motivation. He splashes six.
BetAlytics Projection: 37.55% chance to score a TD
2. Jalen Hurts 220+ pass yards vs. Giants (+115, DraftKings) -- Blast the Mellancamp. Since his closed-door meeting with Devonta Smith, AJ Brown and others a few weeks ago, Hurts has been oh so good. Probably listening to the demands of his pass-catching teammates, he's uncorked with more aggressiveness downfield over the last three games. As a result, he's tossed at least 280 passing yards in each game during the span. Improved standings in key advanced metrics -- he's now QB13 in total air yards and QB5 in deep-ball targets -- suggest the sudden surge should continue. The Giants have made strides in their own right defensively. Currently No. 14 in dropback EPA D on the year, they've surrendered a mere 6.62 pass yards per attempt. However, allowing 258.3 pass yards per game, the G-Men haven't shrunk all warts. Hurts chucked 283 yards only two weeks again in Game 1 of the season series versus the division rival. Revitalized, he steadily feeds his playmakers beyond 10 yards in the rematch.
BetAlytics Projection: 212.97 passing yards
3. Tez Johnson OVER 39.5 receiving yards at Saints (-115, BetMGM) -- If you asked Tez to carry a lightly-packed suitcase up the stairs, it could be a challenge. Standing at 5-foot-10 and 154-pounds, Johnson is built more like an emaciated college point guard. Seriously, someone order the man a 3,000-calorie protein shake pronto. Johnson makes up for the absent bulk with his evasiveness and wheels. Lowkey one of the better field stretchers in the NFC, he's averaged 18.7 yards per catch, posting the 20th-best average depth of target (13.7) in the league. Down Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Baker Mayfield is likely to target him seven-plus times. Recall last Monday in Detroit, he picked up considerable slack after Evans departed with a nasty concussion and shoulder injury. In that contest, he finished with four catches for 58 yards. This week squaring off with a Saints D No. 25 in pass EPA D, he should again rise to the occasion. Johnson's primary projected assignment CB Kool-Aid McKinstry has yielded the fifth-most yards of any NFL DB, a 70.6% catch rate and 118.8 passer rating. Back the Buc.
BetAlytics Projection: 48.98 receiving yards
4. Matthew Golden 50+ receiving yards at Steelers (+135, ESPN Bet) -- This writer's outward appearance is Gandolf-like waiting for Golden to break out. Patience may be wearing thin on the touchdown front, but he's at least provided serviceable stats in other categories. This week should again mark one of those instances. Aaron Rodgers will soak up all of the desired attention he seeks in primetime and against a franchise he's synonymous with, but the rookie has a chance to be a show stealer. Pittsburgh enters Week 8 a terribly bland No. 21 in dropback EPA defense, conceding the eighth-most wide receiver yards. In total, seven WRs have crossed the half-century mark against them. Golden's elite speed and reliable mitts should flash whether working in the slot (46.4 slot%) or outside. Impressively, he's averaged 17.8 yards per catch, topped 50 yards in three of his last four games and ranks top 12 among all wideouts in yards per target and separation yards per target. Feed the Golden Goose.
BetAlytics Projection: 39.73 receiving yards
5. Courtland Sutton 70+ receiving yards vs. Cowboys (+125, ESPN Bet) -- Whenever a WR1 is matched against the Dallas Cowboys thoughts of eggplant emojis dance around in backer heads. Arousal levels should be raised. Ahead of Week 8, the Cowpokes slot No. 30 in dropback EPA D and No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Whether against a banged up Trevon Diggs or backup DBs, Sutton should slay. Bo Nix has a No. 14 preference. This season, the second-year passer has targeted the former SMU standout 7.1 per game, connecting for 70+ yards four times in seven contests. Toss in Sutton's WR15 standing in total air yards along with his above average success rates versus man or zone coverages and he should provide a mountainous return. Climb the stepladder. It's the Cowboys for crying out loud.
BetAlytics Projection: 56.50 receiving yards
Season record: 14-14, +0.10 units