The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Stefon Diggs OVER 50+ receiving yards at Bills (+100, ESPN Bet) -- REVENGE GAME!!! Shake a clenched fist, bulge the jugular and scream it into the ether. The former Bill, looking quite springy and spry last week versus the Panthers, will be motivated to perform given the high stakes and spotlighted stage. Yes, Buffalo is No. 8 in dopback EPA defense this season, but not every link is titanium reinforced. One weak spot in particular is slot corner Taron Johnson. The Bills defender has conceded an 83.3% catch rate and 99.0 passer rating to his assignments. Diggs, who lines up in the slot on 57.7% of his snaps, is sure to take advantage of the occasional matchup. Adding to the sales pitch, he's No. 12 in yards per route run and No. 25 in yards after catch. Twice in four games he's topped the number needed. Under the primetime Sunday night lights, Cardi B's baby daddy delivers.
BetAlytics Projection: 45.87 receiving yards
2. Cam Skattebo OVER 17.5 rush attempts at Saints (-120, DraftKings) -- With October officially here, the Halloween season is in full swing. If you're looking to spook the sportsbook this scary season, betting on Skattebo (It's pronounced BOO and no BO) is only appropriate. This wager isn't quite worth all the candy in the trick-or-treat bag, but a healthy investment could lead to a sweet return. Similar to Marvel comics character Juggernaut, the rookie rusher relishes hard contact. He welcomes plowing through walls, no matter how formidable those fronts may be. So far on the young year, he's engaged the resistance with measurable success. Four games in, Skattebo has posted a laudable 3.02 yards after contact per attempt, forced 11 missed tackles and is RB8 in yards created per touch. Ran into the ground a week ago against the previously unblemished Chargers (25 rush attempts), he's likely to shoulder a burdensome workload this time in New Orleans. This season, the Saints have surrendered 23.5 rush attempts per game to opposing backs. In what should be a highly competitive embroilment, Skattebo is leaned on to alleviate pressure on fellow rook Jaxson Dart and to take advantage of a Brandon Staley defense a middling No. 15 in rush EPA D.
BetAlytics Projection: NA
3. SGP: Justin Fields 170+ pass yards, 40+ rush yards vs. Cowboys (+110, DraftKings) -- In the Bronx, Aaron Judge is the definition of "all-fields power." Meanwhile, across the Hudson in Jersey, the passer with a perfectly crafted last name exhibits the same on the gridiron. Getting creative with a bet tied to the QB's multidimensionality, he's sure to display every tool in the box. It's the Cowboys after all, an NFL-worst defense that's typically assailed in myriad ways. Entering Week 4, the pants-less 'Pokes are rock bottom in dropback EPA defense and No. 25 in rush EPA D. A middle-aged and corpulent Butthead could plod his rotund frame to considerable yardage against them. So far, Dallas has allowed a laughable 309.3 pass yards and 30.5 rush yards per game to opposing passers. Fields has achieved both feats in the same game in two of three starts. Given the tasty matchup, look for him to launch a moonshot to the money.
BetAlytics Projection: 183.66 pass yards, 47.44 rush yards
4. Xavier Worthy OVER 3.5 rush yards at Jaguars (-115, BetMGM) -- Returning to action in full last week despite a dinged wing, Worthy was deployed in his usual multipurpose manner. Against the slumping Ravens, he played 60.6% of the snaps, recording seven touches for 121 combined yards. Andy Reid is a mad scientist. Each week, he fills beakers in his lab, mixes ingredients and reaches creative solutions. His deployment of KC's all-around weapon exemplifies his imaginative gameplans. Whether on direct hand offs, backwards passes or jet sweeps, the Chiefs' grizzled walrus typically features Worthy on the ground roughly 2-3 times per game. Stretching back to last season and including the playoffs, the speedy wideout has received at least one rush attempt in 16 games. Over that span, he registered at least four rush yards a dozen times. Not a single WR has attempted a rush against Jacksonville's stingy front so far this year. Entering their Monday Night matchup, the Jags rank No. 11 in rush EPA defense, allowing just 3.49 yards per carry. The matchup isn't the sexiest, but Worthy will get a shot or two to eclipse the low-hurdle needed. Fire up those bunsen burners, Coach Reid.
BetAlytics Projection: 3.53 rush yards
5. Mason Taylor OVER 29.5 receiving yards vs. Cowboys (-110, BetMGM) - Zone busters have different meanings in a variety of sports. In hoops, it’s a player with Steph Curry range who drains triples from ungodly distances against classic 2-3 schemes. Meanwhile in football, it references an individual who repeatedly exploits soft sports in collective coverage. On the gridiron, Taylor is exactly that. Dallas has employed a zone strategy on over 85% of snaps this season, the most in the NFL. The ‘Boys have allowed only the 21st-most fantasy points to TEs, but as Dallas Goedert (7 grabs), Theo Johnson (4) and Tucker Kraft (5) proved, plus-sized targets typically rack the catches against them. The LSU product, coming off a season-best seven targets, five catches and 65 yards last week against the downtrodden Dolphins, could again tally an appreciable TE1 line in challenging formats. Impressively, he's sprinted out on a route on over 87% of snaps, ranking top 15 in average separation yards per target. Dallas' doo-doo D is one to take advantage of. Jack one from the logo, Taylor.
BetAlytics Projection: 36.53 receiving yards
Season record: 6-7, -1.35 units