Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Kyren Williams OVER 16.5 rush attempts vs. Niners (-120, BetMGM)
Feed the workhorse his oats, Sean McVay.
Even on short rest, Williams -- the ground focal point in L.A.'s offense -- is sure to be saddled up early and often. In three career games against the Golden State rival, he's amassed an exhaustive 22.3 rush attempts per contest. Blue collar.
Yes, San Francisco is a respectable No. 15 in rush EPA defense entering the week. So far this season, Robert Saleh's unit has allowed a modest 4.09 yards per carry and 94.0 rush yards per game to opposing tugboats. However, most pertinent to the wager outlined above, the Gold Panners have given up 23.0 rush attempts per game. Both Travis Etienne and Alvin Kamara -- two back who usually don't carry a steel lunchpail to work -- accumulated 19 carries against them.
Though Blake Corum has occasionally tagged in, Williams is again one of the pacesetters in overall touches. With four games under the belt, he's tallied an 80.5 opportunity share, the sixth-highest in the league. He's averaging below the number required (17.0), but coming off only a 13-carry game, he enters the clash fresh. In a pair of matchups against San Francisco last season, he logged 24 and 29 rush attempts. Another heavy load should be anticipated.
The Rams' defense throws support behind the belief. On the season, Jared Verse and friends are No. 4 in EPA per play D, giving up the ninth-fewest total yards (284.5) and ninth-fewest points per game (20.3) in the league.
San Francisco's modest standing in EPA per play offense (No. 19) combined with its constant stream of physical setbacks -- Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are the latest -- arrows to continued scoring strife.
If L.A. grabs the early lead and doesn't look back or is at least competitive, a boatload of carries awaits Williams.
Wear a hard hat, Kyren.
Season props record: 4-4, -0.13 units
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - Rams +3.5, Christian McCaffrey 12+ rush attempts, Kyren Williams 2+ receptions (+140, ESPN Bet)
Season parlay record: 2-6, -3.79 units