The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. SGP: Jordan Love 200+ pass yards, 2+ pass TDs at Cowboys (+105, DratKings) - Close your eyes, lean in and slip the tongue, gamer. Northern Wisconsin's heartthrob is about to have a banner week. When it comes to playing "defense," the Cowboys are certifiable floozies. Little D is always willing, always accepting and always primed to put out. Three games in, the consenting 'Boys are No. 31 in dropback EPA defense, allowing 9.78 pass yards per attempt, 300.0 pass yards per game and nine total touchdowns to QBs. Make no mistake, they're hilariously atrocious. Currently QB15 in fantasy scoring, Love isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. However, No. 12 in red-zone completion percentage and with a pair of multi-TD performances on the season resume, the Green Bay gunslinger has been largely efficient. In a game with a total approaching 50 (48.5), Love should light up the night sky Sunday night on the road.
BetAlytics Projection: 1.52
2. Rome Odunze 70+ receiving yards at Raiders (+171, DraftKings) -- As we penned a few weeks back, Rome wasn't built in a rookie season. He, like his much maligned quarterback Caleb Williams, took his lumps as a rookie last year. But the lessons learned have paid enormous dividends in Ben Johnson's revamped Bears offense. Churning out a top-five return for the fantasy masses through three weeks, Odunze is likely here to stay among the WR1 class. Virtual gamers are fully aware of what he's accomplished, but the 'book algos setting weekly lines are still playing checkers. Fleece them. The sophomore sensation has attracted a hefty 10.0 targets per game and averaged 75.7 receiving yards per game. Equally inviting, he's WR7 in total air yards and WR23 in yards after catch. Slated to square off against a Raiders defense No. 27 in dropback EPA D, the emerging Bears stud is likely to again thrive.
BetAlytics Projection: 57.69 receiving yards
3. SGP: Buffalo -6.5, Chris Olave OVER 5.5 receptions vs. Vikings (+117, ESPN Bet) -- In a game comparable to a college football shellacking featuring Alabama versus Bethune-Cookman, the Bills opened as a whopping -16.5 favorite. There isn't enough sazerac on Bourbon Street to numb the Saints' pain. Olave, however, has packed some buzz as a pass catcher. A runway model in Spencer Rattler's eyes, the receiver has drawn repeated glances from his QB. With the fourth-highest target share in the NFL three games in, he's averaged a ridiculous 12.3 looks per game. His No. 47 standing in catchable target rate is forgettable, but he's caught at least six balls in EVERY matchup thus far. Slated to line up numerous times versus slot corner Taron Johnson, he should easily haul in a half dozen. This season, the Bills DB has given up a 77.8% catch rate to his assignments. Tacking on the Buffalo -6.5 alt-line and the algorithm somehow spits out plus money. Take advantage.
BetAlytics Projection: 5.17 receptions
4. SGP: JK Dobbins anytime TD, Broncos ML vs. Bengals (+100, DraftKings) -- The Bengals are broken in virtually everyway. They're the coffee mug that shatters into pieces when the identity of Keyser Soze is realized at the end of "The Usual Suspects." This heavy investor in Joe Burrow, Chase Brown and Ja'Marr Chase is inconsolable. Making up for fantasy money surely lost, throwing dollars at Dobbins is an advisable move. The Queen City Kittens are No. 26 in rush EPA D, yielding 4.47 yards per carry, 110.3 rush yards per game and five total touchdowns to RBs. The purposeful veteran, who's logged 62.7% of the team's opportunity share, should have an opportunity or a dozen to punch one in. Through three weeks, he's an impressive No. 5 in YAC per attempt (4.07) and No. 15 in total red zone touches (15). Crossing the chalk in each of his first three contests, Dobbins keeps the scoring streak alive. Tossing in the heavy favorite to handle business at home and attractive plus money is achieved. Lip smacking.
BetAlytics Projection: 51.2% chance to score, Broncos 74.9% chance to win
5. Kyren Williams OVER 10.5 receiving yards vs. Colts (-115, BetMGM) -- Every week in the props market there's an under-the-radar offering that grabs viewers by the HUEVOS and demands further investigation. The low-threshold on Williams receiving yards is precisely that. The Rams rusher is no Christian McCaffrey -- a high-volume pass crutch who his quarterback leans repeatedly. No, he's more of a between-the-tackles grinder. He only averages a modest 13.0 routes run per game. However, netting 11.7 receiving yards per game and eclipsing the necessary number in back-to-back games, Williams is an occasional dump-off safeguard Matthew Stafford flicks to. On what will likely be a customary two receptions, he's an outstanding play versus a Colts D that's already allowed four RBs to record 11+ receiving yards this season. Yes, it's far from a sweet-free bet, but L.A.'s workhorse should creep just OVER.
BetAlytics Projection: 10.21 receiving yards
Season record: 6-7, -1.35 units