Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. 50+ receiving yards (+100, DraftKings)
When fantasy managers giddily selected Marvin Harrison Jr. at a perceived discount in the middle rounds of August drafts, they did their best Aaron Glenn celebration internally. The third-year receiver's hot start in Week 1 (5-71-1 at NO) only affirmed the belief.
Then the last two weeks happened.
Harrison managed to haul in only two passes for 27 yards versus Carolina then followed with a nearly useless three catches for 44 yards in San Francisco, an unremarkable performance punctuated by an appalling drop on an uncontested pass your 11-year old chubby brother could've corralled. Hilarious ineptitude.
Questions about the former top-five pick ever delivering on his promise are warranted. Despite owning an elite pedigree, ideal musculature and off-the-chart skill set, he continues to sputter. Now 20 games into his NFL career, doubts about him living up to sky-high expectations are entirely fair.
Consider this investor a member of the growing negative crowd. Purchased for $19 in the King's Classic salary cap draft, Harrison was supposed to turn a tidy profit. However, at WR44 through three weeks, this buyer is looking into opening an OnlyFans account. The problem: this face and tequila-carved dad bod aren't exactly sellable. Winning is any situation seems nonexistent.
Compounding matters, Harrison's advanced profile is terribly lackluster. He's outside the top-30 in average yards of separation per target (WR32), yards per route run (WR43), total YAC (WR32) and target share (WR40).
So why feature him in this space?
Simply, someone is going to draw CB Tariq Woolen in coverage.
The Seattle DB is a defensive liability. Through three games, he owns the fourth-worst coverage grade on Pro Football Focus, giving up a 75.2% catch rate, 14.2 yards per reception and 137.2 passer rating to his assignments. As a collective, the 'Hawks have yet to allow a 50-yard WR, but they are an exploitable No. 20 in dropback success rate D.
To get back in manager good graces after last week's WIDE-ASS OPEN drop, Harrison needs to shine under the primetime lights. Though he'll only occasionally line up against Woolen, this body is prepared for more pain.
Hold onto the damn rock, Marvin.
Season record: 3-4, -1.15 units
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6+ receptions, Trey Benson 3+ receptions, Trey McBride 4+ receptions (+142, DraftKings)
Season record: 2-5, -2.79 units