Snapping a Polaroid pick on each major fantasy football position, The Gaming Juice’s painfully average predictor, Brad Evans, dishes his picks on which players he believes will flourish, fail and make wallets fat. Fade or follow -- that’s up to YOU.
Today’s tackle: Wide receivers.
BOOM (Player who will greatly exceed his ADP)
Rome Odunze, Chi (ADP: WR35, 66.71) - Chicago’s Rome may soon earn his rightful seat inside the Pantheon of pass catchers.
Though only sporadically displayed in Preseason action, Odunze was arguably the best skill position player on the field at Halas Hall throughout August. Whether in text or expressed on BetMGM Tonight, numerous Bears insiders have drawn the same conclusion about the sophomore wideout -- a breakout is on the immediate horizon.
Despite enticing only 5.9 targets per game in his opening act, Odunze generated several encouraging advanced numbers in his rookie campaign. According to PlayerProfiler, he ranked top-13 in contested catch rate, red-zone targets and deep-ball targets. His WR32 tally in total route wins also offers promise.
Yes, the former Washington Husky also finished at No. 99 in catchable target rate in ‘24. If he wants to earn tasty bully sticks, Caleb Williams must starkly improve his accuracy. Last year, the passer checked in at No. 28 in adjusted completion percentage.
However, as consistently seen in Preseason action, the second-year signal caller appears poised to take a quantum leap jump in production. If the QB’s throws sharpen, Odunze will detonate.
Bears head coach stated earlier this summer he’s confident his team “will capitalize” whenever his young wideout is placed in single-coverage situations. If those opportunities frequently arise, a final output in range of 75-1100-7 is quite doable.
At his fringy WR3 ADP, a godlike return is possible.
BUST (Player who is unlikely to profit at his ADP)
Garrett Wilson, NYJ (ADP: WR14, 29.97) - The Jets’ WR1 may lure more targets than playful memes/videos that scrolled on X about the engagement of the century last Tuesday, but expect many looks to be of the hollow variety.
As witnessed throughout his entire career, Justin Fields doesn’t exactly possess deftness. Dude would overthrow the Jolly Green Giant on a shallow cross. Recall the last time the slinger posted a qualifying workload -- in 2023 with Chicago -- he ranked an unexciting QB24 in adjusted completion percentage, one spot ahead of world-beater Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s not exactly handsome company. Wilson’s No. 85 standing in catchable target percentage from last year may not substantially improve.
The downgrade from Aaron Rodgers to Fields is only one significant value-draining factor. New York’s OC Tanner Engstrand will likely be one of the run-heavy play-callers in the league. It’s possible come year’s end, the Jets rank at or near the top in run rate.
Piling on, Wilson’s outside-the-top-80 finish in average depth of target, yards per target and yards per reception are a major turnoff. Yes, it’s a new coaching staff, but, again, conservatism will be the norm. Unencumbrance will only occasionally be ignored.
Toss in the Jets the eighth-hardest projected fantasy WR strength of schedule and Wilson will often resemble a grounded child confined unplugged in his room. His 140+ targets move the meter, but the nickel-and-dime usage combined with Fields’ inaccuracy suggest he’s more of a back-end WR2 and not a borderline WR1 in 12-team leagues. Mike Evans, Davante Adams and Marvin Harrison Jr. -- all available some 5-10 picks later on average -- are recommended pivots.
Bottom line: Wilson is an overpriced aircraft.
BANK (Top player prop pick)
Calvin Ridley 1,000+ receiving yards (+135, BetMGM) - Riddle me this. Riddle me that. The Riddler won’t make fantasy rosters fall flat.
Over the long summer months, the veteran receiver's fantasy value slowly bubbled. In May, Cameron Wolfe from the NFL Network reported Titans head coach Brian Callahan was more committed to creatively deploying Ridley on quick outs and screens. Meanwhile in July, his rookie QB boasted the hungry "dawg" is a top-five NFL wide receiver, complimenting the former Falcon on his coverage-winning abilities.
Going from Will Levis to No. 1 overall pick Ward is akin to trading in a trip to Siberia for one in the relaxing Maldives. Yes, he's a first-year passer, but his off-the-charts gamesmanship and accurate deep arm should feed Ridley with upwards of 140 targets.
The cranked volume matched with other influential metrics point to at least a high-end WR3 return in 12-team leagues. Remember, Ridley finished No. 5 in average depth of target, No. 1 in total air yards and No. 20 in total route wins a season ago. He also ranked an undesirable No. 1 in unrealized air yards. Given the under-center upgrade, last fall's spoiled downfield opportunities could soon be long in the past.
Tack on Tennessee's flimsy defense, and Ridley topping 1,000 yards becomes all the more realistic.
Just avoid the injury imp and itch for seven-leg parlays, Calvin.