The tractor beam of on-screen eye candy that sucks in fantasy managers this time of year is always intense.
When a standout play is made or a glowing stat-line is logged, virtual gamers act like moths to a flame. Even in meaningless action, they simply can’t resist buying into heightened expectations.
Then the real action gets underway.
Oftentimes, the anticipated regular season sweetness quickly sours. That player you sacrificed a left testicle to acquire leaves you nutless. He was the chosen one, a contributor not only destined to get you off to a blazing start, but someone who would propel your fake franchise to bragging rights glory.
With Week 1 on the immediate horizon, what fast ADP risers will deliver on the hype? Which ones could harbor nothing but second guesses?
Gauging readings on the bank barometer (5 = buyable hype, 1 = duped development), here’s an outlook on three summer sensations whose perceived fantasy worth has skyrocketed in recent weeks. (BTW, click here if you want my perspective on 'Bill' and other Washington RBs.)
TreyVeon Henderson, Patriots, RB
Bank Barometer: 3
ADP (Drafts last 7 days): RB15, 38.46
Once a RB regularly acquirable in the the mid-60s overall in 12-team 0.5 PPR drafts, Henderson has climbed into the RB top 15 of average exercises. He’s a meme stock in fantasy form.
Yes, Rhamondre Stevenson has buttery digits. He coughed up the rock seven times last year, three of those recorded as fumbles lost. One misgrip away from significant pine time, the veteran’s ball protection is an unpredictable factor in determining Henderson’s overall impacts.
Evidenced by his 100-yard kickoff return Preseason Week 2, the rookie unquestionably packs more juice than an Ocean Spray factory. He’s decisive, sure-handed and constructed to handle the rigors of three-down work. It’s no surprise the coaching staff talked up that skill set throughout August. Last year at THE Ohio State, he ranked RB3 among all FBS rushers in YAC per attempt (4.43) and RB8 in runs of 15+ yards (21).
Stevenson has dealt with an undisclosed ailment in recent days, which complicates his Week 1 availability. Assuming he’s in uniform for the opener in Foxboro versus the Raiders, expect a 60-40 Stevenson-Henderson split.
In an offense with many question marks -- especially about an o-line almost universally projected to finish bottom five in run blocking efficiency -- it’s hard to see Henderson meeting numerical expectations attached to his RB15 price. It’s silly Chuba Hubbard, James Conner and Alvin Kamara have gone some 10-20 picks after him.
A final line around 1,100 total yards, 45 receptions with 5-7 TDs feels right.
Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers, WR
Bank Barometer: 4.5
ADP (Drafts last 7 days): WR31, 62.26
Everything has fallen into place for the rookie to make a potential seismic impact over the first month of the regular season. Jalen McMillan (sprained neck) is out for at least the first several weeks. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin (ankle) did avoid the PUP list, but all signs point to him not returning until October. And there’s no guarantee he’ll register a significant snap share once activated.
As discussed previously, Baker Mayfield has blasted his message far and wide about his budding Egbuka love. Whether sprinting off the line outside or in, the greenhorn has consistently created separation, accurately tracked passes and routinely secured them. Whether on short, intermediate or long-range routes, he’s continuously made plays. His 5-yard TD grab witnessed in Preseason Week 2 offered a sneak peek of what’s to come.
His ascension shouldn’t shock a soul. Last year with the national champion Buckeyes, he posted a 100+ passer rating on five different routes and tallied the eighth-most contested catches.
Tampa’s first four weeks are no cakewalk (at Atl, at Hou, NYJ, Phi). However, with roughly 7-9 targets per game up for grabs, Egbuka and my cousin Mike Evans should work up a weekly lather.
Make a cannonball splash in September and Egbuka will ride that momentum to a likely top-24 WR overall output.
Ricky Pearsall, Niners, WR
Bank Barometer: 4
ADP (Drafts last 7 days): WR33, 63.04
Though located roughly 3,000 miles from Tampa, the sophomore receiver’s situation is almost identical to Egbuka’s. He’s an explosive and well-rounded wideout who’s bound to benefit from a ramped role. Jauan Jennings’ nagging calf greatly hindered his availability throughout August. His contract situation also raises questions. Elsewhere, PUP-listed vet Brandon Aiyuk isn’t slated to return until at least Week 5.
The opportunity is ripe.
Pearsall's early season slate isn’t entirely delectable. Sure a matchup at New Orleans in Week 2 overworks salivary glands, but tilts at Seattle along with home clashes versus Arizona and Jacksonville increase the difficulty level.
Yes, his occasional soft-tissue issues dampen optimism, but he and George Kittle should be Brock Purdy’s primary flavors of choice. Recall last year, Pearsall posted a superb 116.2 passer rating when targeted, the 17th-highest mark in the NFL. His fantasy points per target (2.03) also ranked appreciably (WR26).
Target volume has forever been one of fantasy's strongest success indicators. The Niners only finished No. 20 in pass percentage last year, but Pearsall’s spiked share should pay an instant WR3 or higher dividend.