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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Denver Broncos.
Fantasy value — RJ Harvey, RB (ADP: 70.01, RB24)
Dynasty leaguers who invested sizable coin in the rookie rusher may already have a finger hovering above the panic button in light of J.K. Dobbins’ signing, but let the resting tequila age. Eventually, caramel and vanilla nodes will take hold, giving the anejo a wonderfully smooth taste. By midseason, Harvey backers will raise a glass and shout “Salud!”
What’s fascinating? Harvey’s Offensive Rookie of the Year odds (+2000, BetMGM) didn’t budge upon Dobbins’ arrival in Dove Valley. As penned previously, this riverboat gambler is a willing investor given the attractive number.
For head coach Sean Payton, who before his Rocky Mountain stint spent 15 seasons in New Orleans, the second-round pick is Alvin Kamara 2.0. Recall in his inaugural campaign in 2017, the then-first-year Saints running back totaled 1,554 combined yards, 13 touchdowns and 81 receptions on just 38.5% of the opportunity share. That year, Kamara edged out Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt for AP Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Similar to the Fleur-de-lis star, Harvey is likely to be peak efficient. He may only register 12-14 touches per game, but his open-field elusiveness, break-tackle talents and reliable hands could pay a handsome dividend on a per-touch basis. He’s bound to become a Bo Nix check-down favorite, potentially hauling in 65-plus catches.
The skittish will let Harvey slip in drafts, but don’t be the shy one. He has a solid chance of being this season’s Bucky Irving. Already drawing rave reviews ahead of training camp, Harvey is someone to target in the middle rounds, especially in PPR formats.
Prop pick — Courtland Sutton to reach 1,000 receiving yards (+145, DraftKings)
Exploring alt betting markets, Denver’s indisputable WR1 is a horse who could whinny.
Marvin Mims has generated some midsummer hype, early reviews on third-round pick Pat Bryant have been nothing short of glowing and Evan Engram is sure to gobble up targets. However, Sutton established an instant chemistry with Nix last year. That forged bond is likely to again lead to meaningful end-of-season numbers for the club's premier field stretcher.
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Last season on a career-best 135 targets, Sutton crossed the 1,000-yard mark for only the second time in his seven-year career. Impressively, he finished No. 2 in total air yards (1787), No. 7 in total deep-ball targets (26) and No. 3 in contested catch rate (60.6%). Most stunning about his advanced stats profile was his No. 3 standing in unrealized air yards (885, 6.6 per target). Nix, who ranked only No. 21 in deep-ball completion percentage, left many connections on the field intended for No. 14.
With Nix entering Year 2, Sutton, who has the 14th-easiest projected fantasy strength of schedule, could take a step forward. Motivated by the all mighty dollar — he is seeking a contract extension — the former SMU standout is set to gallop past the number required. He’s arguably one of the most underrated downfield weapons in the game.
Team lean — Broncos OVER 9.5 regular-season wins (-110, BetMGM)
Butting up against one of the most breathtaking mountain ranges in the Western Hemisphere, Denver has mile high expectations. Similar to the Peyton Manning days, locals are understandably abuzz.
Their giddiness is warranted. The Broncos' schedule isn’t overly difficult (No. 16 SOS), and they feature a nasty defense, one which could be the NFL’s stingiest. The Orange Crush vibes are palpable.
ESPN’s Mike Clay projects 9.8 victories for Denver, giving it a 50% or greater win probability in 13 games. The Chiefs and Chargers present stiff competition, but the Broncos’ suffocating D and young guns on offense suggest they could pop off. And, no, that belief wasn't inspired by some Jake Plummer mushroom trip.