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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: New Orleans Saints.
Fantasy value — Rashid Shaheed, WR (ADP: 132.2, WR58)
Blessed with Indy-car wheels, Shaheed — even coming off an ACL injury — can still seriously peel out in the open field. Last season in six games prior to his knee setback, he averaged a robust 11.0 fantasy points per game in 0.5 PPR to finish WR33.
Chunk gains are the blazer’s speciality. Under the hood, Shaheed ranked top-10 among all wide receivers in yards per reception (17.5), average depth of target (17.6), air yards share (50.3%) and route win rate (55.3%). According to PlayerProfiler, he also slid inside the position’s top 25 in fantasy points per route run (0.51). Again, the man generates consistent separation.
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During his roughly 26 years in college, Tyler Shough displayed above-average arm strength, posting the 32nd-best deep-ball pass grade as tracked by Pro Football Focus. He’ll have to fend off Spencer Rattler in training camp, but Shough-to-Shaheed could be a better than advertised connection.
At his dirt cheap price, the Saints speedster, who reportedly looked completely healthy in OTAs, is a stellar bench stash in 12-team leagues. A final line in the ballpark of 60-850-5 isn’t sheer silliness.
Prop pick — Tyler Shough OVER 2,200.5 passing yards (-115, Caesars)
As mentioned above, Shough vs. Rattler is shaping up to be the most unspectacular training camp battle of the preseason. Only crazy individuals in 16-team SuperFlex formats — like this auctioning nutcase — remotely care about who wins the starting quarterback gig.
Last year at Louisville on 60 passes of 20 yards or deeper, Shough tallied the 11th-most big-time throws (21) of any FBS quarterback, according to PFF. Standing at a towering 6-foot-5, he has the ideal size and arm talent to sporadically shine downfield. Even if he begins the regular season on the bench, the rookie should get his opportunity quickly.
Throw in New Orleans’ fourth-easiest QB fantasy strength of schedule, above-average arsenal and beatable defense, and Shough may only need 10 starts to achieve the over. Clean up in garbage time, modern-day Chris Weinke.
Team lean — Saints UNDER 4.5 regular-season wins (-145, Caesars)
Expelled human fluids baking under a scorching summer sun on Bourbon Street is just how stinky the Saints are sure to be. As previously discussed, they’re very much in the “worst NFL team” conversation. Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and other notable weapons are commendable, but the Ls could rack quickly, especially if Shough or Rattler sloughs.
Even with the team’s seventh-easiest projected strength of schedule, ESPN’s Mike Clay gives the reborn Aints a 45% or greater win probability in one lousy game (Week 15 vs. Carolina). Trotting out likely bottom-feeding units on both ends, head coach Kellen Moore may regularly need a Sazerac or three to numb the pain.
In total, four wins seems like a best-case scenario. Not even Pope Francis can rain down enough blessings.