2025 Big 12 Tournament prediction

SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.

It all comes down to this. The emotions of Championship Week are unrivaled. Who doesn’t love the blood, sweat and buzzer beaters? Attempting to nail who will represent its league in the Big Dance, the Big Noise gives his conference tournament leans. Merry March Madness!

The pick — Texas Tech to win Big 12 Tournament (+350, BetMGM)

Every game matters.

Earlier this century, it was the Big 12’s very appropriate slogan. The saying still has significant meaning with several teams jockeying for NCAA Tournament seeding power at this week’s kerfuffle in Kansas City.

Houston is looking to solidify its spot on the Big Dance’s top line. Baylor is aiming to avoid the bubble. And Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas and Arizona — teams that all have repeatedly tripped over the last month — are hoping to rebuild confidence entering March's main event.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, is gunning for a favorable position.

Bank on the Red Raiders hitting a bull’s eye — Annie Oakley style.

[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans' latest NCAA Tournament projections ]

Grant McCasland has GUNS UP firing on several cylinders. Over the regular season’s final month, Lubbock’s finest ranked top-10 in overall efficiency on BartTorvik. During the eight-game span, Texas Tech is No. 8 in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting 56.2% from inside the arc and 37.3% outside of it.

Crazily, over 51% of the Red Raiders’ jacks have come from distance, where Chance McMillian, Christian Anderson and Kerwin Walton are each netting at least 41%. Add in JT Toppins’s interior dominance, and this team is capable of racking stats quickly.

Tech’s defense isn’t nearly as spectacular. Since early February, it is No. 115 in effective field goal percentage D, and while it has limited opponents to only 31.3% shooting on 3-pointers, it ranks No. 158 in 2-point percentage D.

The Red Raiders also have been crippled at times by rim attacks. This season, they’re a bland No. 98 in near proximity percentage defense.

McCasland’s men already beat Big 12 regular-season champion Houston on the road and nearly pulled off the regular-season sweep of the Cougars in a 69-61 home loss with a shorthanded roster.

With beatable Baylor, Kansas and Arizona on its side of the bracket, Texas Tech has a smooth path to the championship game. If a third match against Houston happens, the now-healthy Red Raiders have reasonable odds of locking up the automatic bid.

At +350? Really? Wreck ‘em.