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Sometimes you want to make a quick pit stop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Purdue vs. Illinois.
No. 18 Purdue (21-9, 13-6) at Illinois (19-11, 11-8)
Date: Friday, March 7
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
The pick — Illinois ML, Game OVER 152.5 (+100, Caesars)
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
This season, Illinois is the college game’s equivalent of the famed Robert Louis Stevenson work.
On the outwardly good side, the Illini are a well-oiled, across-the-board machine. They’re an elite rebounding team with supreme length, terrific guard play and stellar near-proximity rim skills. When attacking downhill, the creations from NBA prospect Kasparas Jakucionis and the shotmaking form of fellow future Association member Will Riley can inflict one deadly wound after another.
However, when its ugly head is reared, Illinois becomes vulnerable to epic meltdowns and demoralizing defeats.
The soul-crushing 110-67 loss to Duke at Madison Square Garden — the worst L in program history — proved to be a strong indicator. The I-L-L is prone to inexplicable and woefully inaccurate jacks from beyond the arc, as evidenced by its No. 323 ranking in 3-point percentage. Occasional poor defensive efforts down the homestretch have only exacerbated the issues.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans' latest NCAA Tournament projections ]
But with back-to-back 20-point wins against Iowa and at Michigan, an Illinois team plagued by sickness and other various setbacks throughout February may have rediscovered its early season form. Remember, some pundits believed the Illini were Final Four caliber just weeks ago.
Purdue is dealing with its own inopportune susceptibilities.
Offensively — thanks to the floor generalship of Braden Smith — the Boilermakers continue to steam. They’re No. 18 nationally in effective field goal percentage offense over the last 30 days, shooting 55.7% on 2s and 41.0% on 3s. Defensively, Illinois will have to wear a hardhat to avoid disaster.
Matt Painter’s defense, though, is falling apart at the seams. In its last nine games, Purdue ranks a repulsive No. 314 in effective field goal percentage D, surrendering 63.7% on 2s. Your out-of-shape cousin on crutches could kiss one off the glass. The Boilers have challenged perimeter shots effectively, but easy post actions have encouraged easy scores.
If the Orange and Blue successfully feed Tomislav Ivisic in the post and their guards play assertively, the State Farm Center crowd will be treated to a victory. If they fail to do so, a sliding Purdue squad that has four of its last six games will regain confidence heading into the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis.
Keep Mr. Hyde under wraps, Brad Underwood.
Season record: 25-23, +1.42 units