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Bracket Brad isn’t without random thoughts and opinions. Whether discussing team trends or other perspectives, he’ll occasionally spout his bracketology-related reactions on The Gaming Juice.
Illinois Fighting Illini — Bracket Big Board projection: No. 8 seed
The U of I may have a party school reputation, but there aren’t enough watering holes in Champaign-Urbana to meet locals’ demands for mind-numbing substances.
Once believed to be a viable Final Four contender, Illinois has traded in its penthouse suite for a van down by the river. Over the last 30 days, Brad Underwood’s bunch has sharply regressed. During the nine-game stretch, it’s No. 39 overall on BartTorvik, ranking No. 161 in effective field-goal offense and No. 133 in effective field-goal defense.
Offensive issues have been cumbersome for a while, but Illinois’ once-sweet D has severely soured. Blame the injuries and rampant sickness all you want, but the Orange and Blue have been downright bad.
Even in a worst-case scenario, Illinois will dance. Its elite strength of schedule (No. 10 currently) and seven Quad 1 wins rubber stamp it. Keep in mind: In the NET’s existence, Indiana State last year was the highest-ranked team (No. 29) to not receive an at-large NCAA Tournament invitation.
The Illini’s full body of work, difficult remaining slate (Duke, Iowa, at Michigan, Purdue) and Big Ten affiliation virtually guarantee a higher NET finish. Still not convinced? BartTorvik gives the I-L-L a 99.6% chance of making the tournament.
Fun fact: Twenty teams with 14 or more losses since 1985 have earned an at-large bid.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons — Bracket Big Board projection: No. 11 seed
Call this bracketologist “fashionably late” on bouncing Wake off the bubble and placing it in the projected Big Board field.
Only days ago, the Deacons’ resume lacked meat. However, with two Quad 1 wins to their name, a top-60 overall strength of schedule and an appreciable 6-4 record in true road games, they’re practically a burger bar with all the fixings.
The bubble, like most years, reeks of rottenness. Wake Forest’s Quad 3 home loss to Florida State is an unerasable black eye, but it’s accomplished enough to separate from other Bubbleville residents.
What needs to happen? Finish 4-1 over the rest of the regular season and win one to two games in the ACC Tournament. That should be enough to have the Deacs’ name called on Selection Sunday.
Understandably, that’s far from a guarantee. Wake’s No. 69 slotting on BartTorvik over the last 30 days isn’t exactly nice. During the stretch, Tim Duncan U has repeatedly gotten destroyed on the glass and is a pedestrian No. 190 in eFG% offense.
Bottom line: If they beat up on the ACC meek, Steve Forbes’ squad should bust a move.
Arkansas Razorbacks — Bracket Big Board projection: No. 11 seed
Despite a name-brand coach and an exorbitant NIL bag, the Razorbacks are clinging to a potential at-large berth. Yes, they passed the eye test with flying colors in Wednesday’s near shocker at Auburn, but their full body of work doesn’t quite move the meter.
However, given the competition around them, the Hogs have done enough to warrant the selection committee’s attention. They’re top-45 in the NET, own three Quad 1 wins, sport zero bad losses and have played the 25th-hardest schedule of any team in the nation. Thank you, SEC.
Zvonimir Ivisic may be posting laughable lines, but if Johnell Davis and Adou Thiero continue to play at a high level, Arkansas has a real shot of acquiring at least a pair of additional quality Ws.
Finish the regular season 3-2 and triumph in one SEC Tournament game, and it’s a virtual guarantee the Razorbacks get in. But if they throw themselves in a woodchipper at South Carolina and fumble the bag in other golden opportunities at Bud Walton Arena against Missouri, Texas and Mississippi State, the math changes.