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Bracket Brad isn’t without random thoughts and opinions. Whether discussing team trends or other perspectives, he’ll occasionally spout his bracketology-related reactions on The Gaming Juice.
Through the veins of North Carolina greats Jordan, Worthy, Carter, Jamison and Hansbrough, blue blood pumps.
Alongside Kansas, Kentucky, UConn, Villanova and archrival Duke stands the proud heritage of Tar Heel basketball. The Chapel Hill arrival of Bill Belichick (and his twentysomething girlfriend) has the hype machine blaring for football, but annually, it’s hoops that truly drives the 27514 crazy.
Except this year.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans' latest NCAA Tournament projections ]
The Bunsen burner under Hubert Davis’ seat is scalding. Before the season tipped, his North Carolina squad — widely predicted as a NCAA Tournament shoo-in and outright ACC title winner over the Blue Devils — is now fighting for its at-large life. It’s a bummer Armando Bacot didn’t return for his 20th year.
The profile metrics are puke-inducing.
UNC is No. 41 in the NET with a sickly 1-8 record against Quadrant 1 competition. Thanks to a rigid non-conference schedule, the Tar Heels have played the 15th-toughest slate in the college game, but while they’ve satisfied the “who you played” criterion, they have yet to fulfill the “who you beat” part. Despite the flawed resume, BartTorvik still gives North Carolina a 54.5% chance of punching its ticket.
Working against the Heels is the ACC. At No. 5 in KenPom’s conference power rankings, the ACC is barely outpacing the Mountain West. As it stands, only Duke, Louisville and Clemson are the league’s sure-fire NCAA Tournament bids. Most discouragingly for UNC is that it likely only has a handful of Quad 1 opportunities left. Most other bubble teams in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East have considerably more.
Adding to North Carolina’s misery are its roster construction and resulting mediocrity. The lack of frontcourt depth and general erratic efforts are unfortunate. In games played this month, the Tar Heels rank No. 148 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense and No. 55 in effective field-goal defense. Subpar.
Only twice since 2004 has UNC failed to lace up its sneakers for the Big Dance. If the Heels don’t split their pair of showdowns along Tobacco Road against Duke and secure an additional two to three Quad 1 wins, the often lambasted NIT is their inevitable destination.
With North Carolina currently -110 on FanDuel to miss the NCAAs, this bracketologist believes RJ Davis and brethren bleed out.