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The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
Buffalo Bills (13-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Date: Sunday, January 26
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
1. Josh Allen anytime touchdown (+100, BetMGM)
Falling like the white stuff on Bourbon Street — and it’s not remotely what you’re thinking of — the juice associated with Allen’s anytime TD has plummeted. Earlier this week, it was 15 cents higher on BetMGM, but at most locations, it has ventured into significant minus territory. At its current even money, the prop remains a value on par with scoring oceanside property in Boca Raton for a song.
In their last five games, the Chiefs are No. 21 in rush EPA defense. During the regular season, Steve Spagnuolo’s unit surrendered the seventh-most rushing yards and four ground touchdowns to signal callers. Kansas City also ranked No. 5 in pocket pressure rate, dialing up the heat on 25.5% of quarterback dropbacks.
Due to Allen’s impromptu running nature and wheelbarrow usage in the red zone, he’s a sound bet. Keep in mind: In seven career postseason games, the Bills QB has scored three TDs and averaged 52.7 rushing yards per game. With a 49.4% chance of crossing the chalk according to BetAlytics, the former Wyoming wrecking ball should blast his way for six.
BetAlytics grade: C+
2. Xavier Worthy OVER 3.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
Rattle the eardrums with some old-school DMX. X is gon’ give it to ya.
Yes, last week against Baltimore, this bet bombed. On his lone carry, Worthy was tackled by ball stalker Will Anderson for an 8-yard loss. With the Chiefs rookie receiver frequently deployed as a rusher the last several weeks, consider the divisional-round disaster to be a mild hiccup. Worthy has cashed the OVER on this prop in six of his last nine games, amassing 13 rushing attempts over the stretch. The multidimensional wideout also averaged 5.2 yards per carry in the regular season.
Buffalo has vastly improved up front, as evidenced by its No. 4 standing in rush EPA D since Week 15. However, eight WRs burst for at least four rushing yards against the Bills in the regular season, including Worthy who tallied seven yards on his only carry in Week 11. Whether on a backwards pass or in-motion sweep, he should reward backers with a sizable ground gain.
3. SGP: Travis Kelce anytime TD, 50+ receiving yards (+145, BetMGM)
Morphing into Thanos in the playoffs, Kelce sports all the infinity stones. He’s arguably the most clutch postseason producer ever in NFL history, no matter the position. In 23 playoff games, the K.C. tight end has tallied a ridiculous 7.5 receptions and 87.8 receiving yards per game. Mr. Taylor Swift has also scored 20 touchdowns. “Shake It Off” indeed.
Unless Buffalo defenders are firing off horse tranquilizers, Kelce is not likely to be contained. The Bills are No. 23 in pass EPA defense since Week 14, and only five plus-sized targets notched 50 yards against them in the regular season. Kelce only accounted for eight yards on two receptions against the AFC East reps in Week 11, but given his stellar historical postseason resume and No. 1 slotting among TEs in total air yards, he’ll carve up whatever scheme he faces.
At +145, the juice on the simple two-legger above packs ample nutrients.
BetAlytics grade: C+
BONUS NO ANALYSIS SGP PLAY — Buffalo +7.5, Josh Allen 25+ rushing yards, Patrick Mahomes 25+ rushing yards (+188, DraftKings)
Season record: 47-53, -4.43 units