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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Puka Nacua OVER 87.5 receiving yards vs. Vikings in Arizona (-115, BetMGM)
The Rams WR1 has been a profitable play week in and week out. Super wild card round won’t be an exception. Nacua lit up Minnesota for 108 yards on seven receptions in Week 8, and he’s likely to carve up the Vikings again by primarily facing cornerback Stephon Gilmore. This season, Gilmore has allowed the 29th-most yards of any pass defender along with a 66.3 catch percentage. In total, the Purple People Greeters conceded the second-most receiving yards to WRs, allowing 11 wideouts to reach the required yardage. Nacua, one of the game’s toughest to wrangle accumulators in the open field (WR9 in total YAC), is a strong century mark candidate. Punk ‘em, Puka.
BetAlytics grade: C+
2. Saquon Barkley OVER 11.5 receiving yards vs. Packers (-110, BetMGM)
Evans, this is the Saquon prop you’re backing? How much tequila did you consume at breakfast? Yes, this adventurous gambler is throwing a curveball, but the above Barkley bet is simply too irresistible. The reverse hurdler hasn’t logged an over in receiving yards since November. In 16 games, he tallied 12 or more receiving yards only seven times. Still, back in Week 1 against the Packers, he grabbed two passes for 23 yards. He also averaged a healthy 12.3 routes per game, caught 76.7% of his intended looks and ranked No. 10 in yards per reception (8.4). Most importantly, dinks and dunks to RBs have gashed Green Bay, which has allowed the second-most receptions (5.4 per game) and third-most yards (40.4) to the RB position. Overall, a whopping 24 tacky-handed rushers topped the above number. And, yes, a fine anejo pairs wonderfully with Cheerios.
BetAlytics grade: B-
3. Mark Andrews anytime touchdown vs. Steelers (+140, DraftKings)
Sometimes the sportsbooks remain stuck in neutral. As Derrick Henry’s anytime TD market continues to soar — for him to score this weekend, it’s -190 at BetMGM — Andrews inexplicably steadily simmers in plus money. Based on his recent scoring trend, it’s head scratching to say the least. He’s celebrated an end-zone spike in six straight contests. The last time he faced Pittsburgh in Week 16, he caught four passes for 37 yards and — you guessed it — a touchdown. Undergoing a resurgence, he finished No. 9 in total red-zone targets (14) and No. 1 in passer rating when targeted (141.7) among tight ends. Given the Steelers’ well-documented struggles defending plus-sized weapons — they have given up 6.2 receptions per game, 56.4 yards per game and seven scores to the position — and Andrews’ dependability inside the 20, he’s a tremendous value play at +140.
BetAlytics grade: B-
4. Josh Allen OVER 39.5 rushing yards vs. Broncos (-115, BetMGM)
Newly engaged, the league MVP front-runner and fixture on the Bills’ Super Bowl contending roster is in the best of places. Historically in the playoffs, the franchise cornerstone has sacrificed his body, picking up sizable gains with his legs. Whether on designed or opportunistic scrambles, he routinely moved the chains. In five career postseason bouts, he has averaged a substantial 8.0 rushing attempts and 60.6 rushing yards per game. Even more attractive is Denver’s penchant to bring the house on defense. Only the Cowboys posted a higher pocket pressure rate than the Broncos, who dialed up the heat on 27.7% of QB dropbacks and are sure to occasionally flush Allen into the open field. Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson was the only passer to eclipse 40 ground yards against the Broncos in the regular season. However, with everything at stake, Buffalo’s show horse gallops backers into the winner’s circle.
BetAlytics grade: B-
5. SGP: Justin Herbert 225+ passing yards, 20+ passing completions vs. Texans (+100, Caesars)
Rich, athletic, finely coiffed and absurdly talented. When you ask Alexa, “What living human is the opposite of Brad Evans?” Herbert's name is immediately given. And, naturally, this bettor is gravitating toward him. He’s achieved both feats in the same game three-straight weeks. Delivering pinpoint passes down the stretch, he finished No. 4 in adjusted completion percentage Weeks 13 through 18. Well inside the top 10 in total air yards (QB4) and deep-ball completion percentage (QB8), Herbert should prove to be a road warrior in Houston. The Texans have visibly crumbled defensively over the last several weeks. Over their last five games, they rank a mere No. 23 in pass EPA D. Just six quarterbacks completed 20 passes for 225 or more yards against H-Town in the regular season. Still, with the future Head and Shoulders pitchman threading needles, the above two-leg SGP is worth the scrub.
BetAlytics grade: A-
Season record: 44-45, -1.08 units