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It’s put up or shut up time in the NFL. The playoff season has officially arrived. Sorting through Saturday’s various offerings, our resident underwater gambler fires off a couple of opportunities sure to drag him deeper into the depths. Fade or follow? That’s up to YOU!
Chargers-Texans pick — Nico Collins most receiving yards in game (-105, BetMGM)
I can feel it coming in the air tonight. Oh, lord. Oh, lord.
Similar to another Collins, Houston’s version should be a chart topper in receiving yards in his battle with the Bolts.
Only derailed by a tender hamstring for five weeks, the Texans WR1 was unmistakably C.J. Stroud’s main man. In 12 regular-season contests, he averaged 8.3 targets per game and finished in the top 20 among all wide receivers in yards per target (10.2), yards per route run (2.92) and route win percentage (49.4%). His fourth-best win rate against man coverage and WR22 finish in total YAC were also exceptional.
In brief, Nico routinely nuked defenses.
The Chargers pass defense isn’t exactly unplugged. Since Week 13, it ranks a respectable No. 11 in pass EPA D. However, Collins’ primary projected dance partner, cornerback Kristian Fulton, allowed a 108.5 passer rating and 66.7% catch rate on 459 coverage snaps in the regular season. For a wideout with supreme off-the-line moves, the one-on-one matchup is exploitable.
Collins has totaled at least 90 receiving yards five times this season. Yes, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston are threats, but at a very buyable -105 odds and with the Texans as line underdogs (+3), the top target is likely to rock out.
Steelers-Ravens pick — SGP: Derrick Henry touchdown, Derrick Henry 19+ rushing attempts, Baltimore ML (+103, Caesars)
See hole. Smash hole. UGGGHHHH!
With game-time temps hovering around freezing and winds gusting up to 20-25 mph, there’s no better individual equipped to cut through the chill than the Football Frankenstein. Baltimore’s rushing monster was meticulously crafted for moments like this. Any Steelers defender who dares to engage him at full steam is sure to feel a jarring sting.
No rusher in the NFL has forced more missed tackles (80) than Henry, according to Pro Football Focus. Also ranking No. 5 in yards after contact per attempt (3.50), he’s a specimen sure to rack thumping gains after halftime. The Ravens, after all, are favored by 10 points, and Henry logged a mere 24 carries for 162 rushing yards the last time he faced Pittsburgh in Week 16.
Baltimore’s master blaster scored a touchdown in 13 of 17 games. His 60 red-zone touches — 15 coming at the goal line — tied Joe Mixon for sixth-most in the NFL. A certifiable workhorse earning 77.0% of the opportunity share, Henry also averaged 19.1 rushing attempts per game, eclipsing the required mark above in five of his last six games.
Pittsburgh is more soft than Steel Curtain these days. Over the last five weeks, it ranked an uncharacteristic No. 22 in rush EPA defense, giving up 4.12 yards per carry and 94.2 yards per game to rushers. Overall, seven RBs recorded at least 19 attempts against the Steelers.
It’s January, a month designed for Henry to shine. Expect him and the Ravens to pulverize Pittsburgh once again.