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Sometimes you want to make a quick pitstop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Michigan State vs. Ohio State.
No. 18 Michigan State (11-2, 2-0) at Ohio State (9-4, 1-1)
Date: Friday, January 3
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
The pick — Ohio State -1.5 (-102, FanDuel)
To fair-weather Ohio State basketball fans, thoughts of the pigskin Promised Land are first and foremost. A Jan. 10 date with Texas looms in the Cotton Bowl with the winner advancing to the Jan. 20 national championship game against Notre Dame or Penn State.
Yes, that level of football importance trumps all, but sheepishly ignoring what Jake Diebler has cooking on the hardcourt is blatantly dopey. The Buckeyes have ripped off three-straight wins, including a 20-point smashing of highly touted Kentucky at Madison Square Garden.
OSU’s 9-4 record may not grab casuals, but its sharp rise in advanced metric rankings shouldn’t go unnoticed. For example, Brutus has ascended to No. 28 on KenPom.
Examining the Buckeyes’ analytics profile, that standing should continue to march northward in the coming weeks. Bruce Thornton and company are top-20 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense and effective field-goal percentage defense. That well-roundedness and the return of 7-foot-1 Aaron Bradshaw have the reps from Columbus climbing.
Without much hype, Michigan State continues to plug away with measurable success. It owns only one fringy Quadrant 1 victory, a 94-91 overtime triumph against North Carolina in Maui, but whether against meek or mighty opponents, the Spartans have mostly wielded a sharpened short sword.
Jaxon Kohler (8.4 rebounds per game) is a major reason why they rank handsomely in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, the precise pass execution of point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (5.9 assists per game) explains MSU’s top-12 placement in assists-to-field-goals made.
However, for the visiting team, one distinct disadvantage jumps off the screen.
This season, Tom Izzo’s club is about as accurate from the 3-point arc as Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s “Let it rain!” character from “Along Came Polly.” As a group, the Spartans are shooting a repugnant 28.8% from distance, “good” for No. 325 in the country. Conversely, the Buckeyes are netting a dead-eye 39.6% from long range, with Thornton and John Mobley a combined 48.3%. Lethal.
Without question, the action at the Schottenstein Center will run hot. If Bradshaw can effectively rim-protect against a MSU team highly reliant on around-the-basket conversions and the Buckeyes can outperform their sketchy 69.7% free-throw shooting, victory and a cover will be achieved. The 3s that Ohio State is bound to bury could lead to a more resounding win.
Nut up, Brutus.
Season record: 12-8, +3.99 units