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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Brock Purdy OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Lions (-115, BetMGM)
Armed with guitar fire, the 49ers quarterback is about to channel all of the AC/DC Angus Young energy — school boy attire not included.
The disappointment of San Francisco’s 2024 season may still weigh heavily, but playing without playoff pressures and facing an in-shambles Detroit defense, Purdy is in position to take the stage and shred on Monday Night Football.
Once viewed as nearly invincible, the Lions are in a vulnerable spot. Losing key pieces on both sides of the ball has the once untamable beast cowering. Over the past five weeks, Detroit is a lousy No. 26 in pass EPA defense, surrendering 8.3 passing yards per attempt, 266.0 passing yards per game and an 8-0 touchdown-interception split over the stretch. In another gut punch, three QBs have tossed at least two touchdowns against Dan Campbell’s crew since Week 13.
Despite losing irreplaceable components of his own, Purdy has performed quite well this season. Call him a system QB all you want, but the efficiency speaks for itself.
Purdy ranks No. 9 in both red-zone completion and deep-ball completion percentage. His No. 28 standing in overall adjusted completion percentage dims the lights, but he’s tallied two or more end-zone strikes in two of his last three games. Due to Detroit’s susceptible secondary, odds are strong he does it again.
Back in August, most NFL voices believed a late-December Lions-Niners matchup was going to deliver all the goods. Now meaningful only to Detroit’s playoff positioning, it’s lost considerable luster.
Still, we wager to increase the entertainment. And that, my gaming friends, is what betting is all about.
Shoot, Shoot
Shoot, Shoot
We salute you, yeah.
Brock to your heart’s content.
Prop season record: 15-23 -9.34 units
SGP play — Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown, George Kittle 40+ receiving yards, Brock Purdy OVER 18.5 rushing yards (+216, DraftKings)
Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown. With your boy’s heartthrob, #MandatoryMontgomery, sadly derailed by an MCL setback, Gibbs will again shoulder the lion’s share of touches. On a per gip basis, Detroit’s “Sonic” is the definition of “efficiency.” In 15 games, he is top-15 in yards after contact per attempt (3.34), total missed tackles forced (53) and yards created per touch (4.31). Also, his 55 red-zone touches are No. 4 among all qualifying running backs. Most importantly, he’s crossed the chalk in eight of his last 10 games. Working behind an elite offensive line and knowing the Niners, who rank No. 28 in rush EPA D since Week 12, have allowed 1.13 touchdowns per game to RBs, this should be a bankable leg.
George Kittle 40+ receiving yards. Taste the rainbow. Kittle is about to earn all of the Skittles. This is an easily accomplishable threshold for one of the NFL’s most consistent tight-end producers. He’s reached the needed threshold in 12 of 13 games. And with Kittle setting the pace at the position in multiple categories — including yards per route run (3.03), expected points added (+68.0), yards per target (11.7) and yards per reception (14.2) — this is low-hanging fruit. The Lions have allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends (35.2 per game), but since Week 14, Tucker Kraft, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox each crossed the 40-yard mark against them. On what’s sure to be another vigorous target share, Kittle has favorable odds of reaching the above number by halftime.
Brock Purdy OVER 18.5 rushing yards. He may not have the ground juice of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Jayden Daniels, but Purdy — similar to Patrick Mahomes — is a sneaky, effective booty scooter. Purdy is averaging 4.5 carries and 22.2 rushing yards per game, sprinting for 19 or more yards in seven of 14 contests. Detroit’s defense steadily spikes the pocket temperature. Dialing up the heat on 25.9% of opponent dropbacks, the Lions are No. 4 in pocket pressure rate. As a result, they’ve unsurprisingly allowed 28.3 rushing yards per game to QBs. In total, 10 signal callers have scrambled over the proposed number, including the Titans’ Mason Rudolph. Keep on Brockin.’
SGP season record: 15-26, -1.30 units