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Sometimes you want to make a quick pitstop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on North Carolina vs. Florida in Charlotte.
North Carolina (6-4) vs. No. 7 Florida (7-0)
Date: Tuesday, December 17
Site: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C.
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Somewhere on cloud nine, Dean Smith’s harp just snapped a chord. His beloved North Carolina sits at a woefully mediocre 6-4.
To be fair, all of the Tar Heels’ losses are quality in nature (Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State and Alabama), but for a program second only to UConn this century in BartTorvik’s PAKE (Performance Against Komputer Expectations), it’s an uncharacteristically wretched start.
Much like its legendary angel, the fan base is quite displeased. Locals in Chapel Hill are probably asking, “Can Bill Belichick coach basketball, too?”
Despite UNC’s mediocre No. 54 standing in wins above bubble, Torvik still gives the Heels a 78.1% chance to eventually right the ship and make the NCAA Tournament. Still, with only one quality win under their belt (a dismissal of Dayton in Maui) and with the ACC relatively lackluster compared to other powerhouse leagues, the resume could use another non-con boost.
Tuesday’s showdown against high-flying Florida in nearby Charlotte presents a ripe opportunity.
Can Hubert Davis’ club pick a W off the vine?
It seems unlikely. Florida is for real.
The pick — SGP: Florida ML, Game OVER 155.5 (+100, Caesars)
The off-the-court allegations against head coach Todd Golden haven’t been a distraction. The undefeated Gators have chomped down on their prey with relative ease.
UNC is a step up in weight class, but Florida, which is No. 9 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 10 in effective field goal percentage defense, possess the necessary multidimensionality to justify its top-10 KenPom ranking.
Most importantly, the Gators are a matchup problem for North Carolina.
When it comes to post play, the Tar Heels are a few Griswolds short of a dysfunctional holiday family gathering. Through 10 games, they stand a respectable No. 73 in 2-point percentage defense, but as witnessed in Hawaii, opponents with enforcing frontcourts can bully and bludgeon them down low.
That disadvantage has also led to thriving kick-out games. As a result, UNC ranks 219th nationally in 3-point percentage defense. Over 35% of opponents’ baskets have come along the perimeter. If RJ Davis, Seth Trimble and Ian Jackson can’t match bucket for bucket from long distance, a lopsided loss could commence.
Not only solid from the arc — Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin are shooting a combined 37.3% on 3s — Florida is an exceptional second-chance team. Thanks to the relentless efforts of Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu, the Gators are No. 10 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (40.2%). They’re also top-10 in eFG defense, giving up only 42.5% from 2 and 30.0% from 3, so the group from Gainesville is across-the-board tough.
Desperate teams are usually worth backing. No doubt, North Carolina has its back against the wall, but even in front of a mostly partisan crowd, the Tar Heels will surrender.
Tack on the alt-total OVER in what should be an up-and-down track meet — both teams are top-100 in adjusted tempo — and plus money is achieved.
Try to rest comfortably, Coach Smith. It could be a long and disappointing season in Chapel Hill.
Season record: 9-7, +1.99 units
BONUS TIME — St. Bonaventure -7.5 vs. Siena (-110)