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No. 19 Army (9-0) vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (9-1)
Date: Saturday, November 23
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Can a game get more Americana?
Army football, Notre Dame football, Yankee Stadium, NBC. It feels like we should be listening to this game on the radio in the car outside our farmhouse.
While I’m just as patriotic as the next guy, I don’t think Army can handle the Notre Dame offense.
The pick — Notre Dame team total OVER 29.5 points (-115, BetRivers)
There’s really no other way to describe the ND offense other than a wagon. The Irish have just been balling out. They average 38 points per game — 46 in their last three games — and they rank sixth in points per play.
I get that Notre Dame hasn’t put up these points against the world’s best defenses, but Army isn’t necessarily gleaming with defensive chops.
Ranking a pedestrian 56th in defensive success rate, the Black Knights won’t match up well with the Irish running game. Army ranks 82nd in defensive rushing success rate, while Notre Dame thrives off the run as the nation’s sixth-best team in EPA per rush. ND also runs the ball on more than half (54.8%) of its offensive plays and is fourth in rushing yards per attempt at 6.0.
There’s a very good chance Notre Dame simply wears down Army’s defensive line and has the freedom to do anything offensively by the second half.
The game might be slower-paced early on as the Black Knights try to minimize mistakes. However, the Irish’s talent will likely win out, allowing them to get real friendly with the end zone in the second half and help us hit the over.
Season record: 24-14, +9.00 units