SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
No. 3 Georgia (7-1) at No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2)
Date: Saturday, November 9
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
One of my biggest takeaways on the college football season has been the drastic swings in play from top-ranked teams week-to-week. The days of elite programs like Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson dominating opponents every Saturday don’t exist anymore, and every national championship contender has a glaring flaw.
That has made the sport very fun to watch each week, but the amount of variance also has made betting a challenge. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs are one of the teams who you don’t know what to expect from any given Saturday.
Georgia had a strong second half against Clemson in a 34-3 season-opening win that aged very well until the Tigers lost to Louisville last week. The Bulldogs looked horrible for 18 minutes at Alabama before overcoming a 28-0 deficit to take the lead with less than three minutes left in an eventual 41-34 loss, but they had a statement 30-15 victory at then-No. 1 Texas to prove they’re still one of the best teams in the country.
Some results have been puzzling. Georgia won 13-12 against a Kentucky squad that’s now in free fall, gave up 31 points to Mississippi State and needed two late touchdowns to win 34-20 against Florida, which was down to its third-string QB. Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck has thrown more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (10) in SEC play, and his NFL Draft stock seems to go down by the week.
With all the concern for Georgia, I believe the betting market has downgraded it too much before Saturday’s trip to Ole Miss. Several indicators point to a better performance from the Bulldogs, and the price is right to back them while giving under a field goal.
The pick — Georgia -2.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Part of the reason for betting Georgia is anti-Ole Miss sentiment.
When the Rebels were a road favorite against LSU about a month ago, I thought they were being propped up by an easy non-conference schedule and were overvalued. Ole Miss experienced some unfortunate breaks in a 29-26 overtime loss.
Another concern in that game was trusting Lane Kiffin in big games. He’s a polarizing figure off the field and has taken the Rebels to a consistent level that they haven’t been able to sustain before. However, it’s hard to look past Kiffin’s record in matchups against teams with the talent advantage.
Last season, Georgia thumped Ole Miss 52-17 in a game that was non-competitive for most of the second half. Kiffin is also 0-4 the last four years against Alabama.
The Rebels are coming off a confidence-boosting 63-31 victory over Arkansas last week, but Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green played at less than 100 percent before being pulled from the game. My opinion on Ole Miss doesn’t change much from the win, but the point spread has adjusted to upgrade them, creating line value on Georgia.
A bonus factor that could favor the Bulldogs is the injury situation.
Last week, Georgia welcomed the return of guard Tate Ratledge, who missed the marquee road games at Alabama and Texas. The Rebels have been without top wide receiver Tre Harris the last two games, and even if he does play on Saturday, I doubt he’ll be close to 100 percent against a solid Bulldogs pass defense.
In a game that is basically pick the winner, I’ll almost always take Kirby Smart over Lane Kiffin. I expect Georgia’s defense to have a very strong performance similar to its effort against Texas.
Season record: 14-14, -1.14 units