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Texas Tech (5-2) at TCU (4-3)
Date: Saturday, October 26
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
The pick — Texas Tech OVER 29.5 total points (-120, ESPNBet)
This bet is really about disrespect.
Are you seriously giving me under 30 points for one of the country’s higher-scoring offenses? I guess you must hate taking my money.
If there’s one area where the Red Raiders have excelled this season, it’s their offense. With the defense ranking in the bottom third of all teams, the offense has won them games.
Led by redshirt junior quarterback Behren Morton, Texas Tech has been more than efficient at scoring. And Morton is having a career year, having thrown 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He’s also enjoying career bests in completion percentage (63.7) and yards per attempt (7.1).
Morton’s talents have led the Red Raiders to new heights offensively. Tech ranks 17th in the nation in scoring at 36.5 points per game, and even if you narrow the sample size to the last three contests, it is averaging 35.7 points. The Red Raiders offense also ranks 29th in points per play and has scored 30 or more points in four of the last five games.
The TCU defense isn’t particularly strong. The Horned Frogs allow 32.0 points per game and 32.5 at home, and they struggle to get off the field on third and fourth downs, ranking 68th in the nation in that category.
Additionally, Texas Tech excels at running the ball with a rushing success rate that’s 22nd in the nation, while TCU’s opponent rushing success rate defense is a dismal 66th. There are simply a multitude of ways for the Red Raiders to move the ball against the Horned Frogs.
The game total is also high, hovering around 67 points, and that indicates the market expects some scoring. For reference, Texas Tech scored over 30 points last week against Baylor in a 59-35 loss in which the total was 10 points lower at 55.5.
With the Red Raiders consistently hitting the 30-point mark, I’ll bet on them to do it again in what’s likely to be a high-scoring affair.
Season record: 16-12, +3.75 units