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No. 11 BYU (7-0) at UCF (3-4)
Date: Saturday, October 26
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
The seasons for No. 11 BYU and UCF have gone very differently from preseason expectations.
The Cougars’ regular-season win total was 4.5, and the Knights’ was 7.5. BYU has blown through its win total, while UCF is one loss away from clinching the under.
This sets up an opportunity to sell high on the overachieving Cougars, who are 4-0 in conference play with three of those victories coming at home. As for UCF, it is near the bottom of its price range as it hasn’t won since Week 3.
The pick — UCF ML (-125, BetMGM)
I don’t want to take away what BYU has done this year because the team wasn’t expected to finish with a losing record. The Cougars’ 18-15 non-conference win against SMU has aged better with the Mustangs making noise in the ACC, and BYU has another big victory on its resume with a 38-9 rout of then-13th-ranked Kansas State.
The Cougars have had a lot of good fortune during their Big 12 run. The K-State win was aided by two defensive and special teams touchdowns on what was a tricky night game for a Wildcats squad not used to making the trip to Provo. The next week at Baylor, BYU got out to a big lead and staved off a late comeback to beat the Bears 34-28. Then the Cougars defeated Arizona 41-19, using a 4-1 turnover advantage to cruise past a Wildcats team that has regressed from last season.
Last week, BYU really struggled as a touchdown favorite in a 38-35 win against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys, one of the Big 12’s underachieving teams, ran all over the Cougars with RB Ollie Gordon and QB Garret Rangel, but BYU continued its magical season thanks to QB Jake Retzlaff, who threw a game-winning 35-yard touchdown pass to Darius Lassiter with 10 seconds left.
UCF should be able to exploit the BYU weaknesses that Oklahoma State exposed. Last Saturday, new Knights QB Jacurri Brown and RB RJ Harvey rushed for a combined 350 yards in a 38-35 loss to the-No. 9 Iowa State. I can count on UCF coach Gus Malzahn to stick to that game plan, which is what he’s best known for, and hand the Cougars their first loss of the season.
Season record: 11-10, +0.42 units