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UCLA (1-4) at Rutgers (4-2)
Date: Saturday, October 19
Time: Noon ET
TV: FS1
On a weekend filled with so many great marquee matchups, I’ve decided to forgo all the SEO clicks and page views in order to bring you one of my favorite bets in Week 8.
You can have Alabama, Texas or LSU. I’m sticking with Rutgers, baby!
The pick — Rutgers -4 (-110, Circa)
Much like my Arizona State-Cincinnati bet, this is more of a fade of the visitors than it is a bet on the home team.
On top of UCLA being in the tough situation of traveling from California to New Jersey, the Bruins are, quite simply, bad. You want them to play defense? They probably won’t. You need them to score? Ha, good luck with that one.
Quarterback Ethan Garbers would make Oprah jealous of how many free footballs he gives away to opposing defenses, having thrown more interceptions (nine) than touchdown passes (four) this season.
The weak passing game is a really tough look for UCLA when you see that it ranks 13th in the country in passing play percentage. The Bruins call pass plays on 58.24% of their offensive snaps, and that’s good news for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights rank fourth in the nation in opponent success rate on dropbacks.
Rutgers’ rush defense is certainly one of its weaknesses, but UCLA is an embarrassing 132nd in rushing success rate. So much for taking advantage of that.
QB Athan Kaliakmanis has certainly struggled with his own interception problems, having thrown three picks in his last two games. However, going against a Bruins defense that’s 98th in interceptions per game, the senior might have a much cleaner day throwing the ball than he had against better defenses like Wisconsin and Nebraska.
This also will be the Scarlet Knights’ first back-to-back home-game stretch since Weeks 1 and 2. Their rest advantage and UCLA’s long-distance travel gives them a big upper hand in this one.
Long story short: UCLA bad, Rutgers good. I will be betting my money accordingly.
Season record: 14-11, +2.91 units