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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Kenneth Walker III OVER 13.5 rushing attempts (-130, BetMGM)
Squeaky wheel gets the grease. On Monday, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald said Walker’s barely noticeable groundwork (five carries) in last Sunday’s 29-20 loss to the New York Giants was a “disservice.” No lies were detected.
It was rather unfathomable that a rusher who’s top-10 in total missed tackles forced and yards after contact would receive such a minimal workload against a defense ranked outside the top 20 in rush EPA D. It wasn’t as if prime Phil Simms reemerged and twirled repeated strikes to an out-of-retirement Amani Toomer to propel the G-Men to victory.
Macdonald’s admitted brain fart means Walker is destined for a proper feeding on Thursday. One could even say he’s ready and fresh despite the short week. He’s only topped the proposed number once in three games, but a 20-carry volume is completely within the realm of possibility.
San Francisco is a terribly bland No. 20 in rush EPA defense, allowing 4.17 yards per carry and 86.0 rushing yards per game to running backs. Breece Hall, Kyren Williams and James Conner each topped 14 rush attempts against the 49ers.
In what should be a hotly contested NFC West showdown, Seattle's workhorse is appropriately saddled. Willingly pay the heightened juice.
Prop season record: 7-8 -1.50 units
SGP — DK Metcalf 4+ receptions, Kenneth Walker III 45+ rushing yards, Brock Purdy 5+ rushing yards (+130, ESPN Bet)
DK Metcalf 4+ receptions. Fully Met-caffeinated, DK will blast the box score with the energy of 10 fully loaded Red Bulls. Averaging a sizable 9.0 targets per game, he’s top-10 in total air yards (441), yards after catch (136) and route wins (71). Geno Smith’s 118.5 passer rating when tossing to Metcalf sums up just how efficient the combo has performed. With Week 1 the lone exception, the Seahawks wide receiver has hauled in four or more passes in every game. Better yet, his projected primary matchup, CB Isaac Yiadom, is a delectable one. The beatable DB has yielded a 68.8 catch percentage and 115.9 passer rating to his assignments. The 49ers are No. 9 in dropback EPA as a collective, but Geno is sure to fire at No. 14 at least 7-9 times.
Kennth Walker III 45+ rushing yards. Correlate. Synergize. And bring it all together. If Walker is destined to earn 14 or more carries as this -EV bettor believes, ground yards will inevitably accumulate. As outlined above, San Francisco’s defensive front has underwhelmed wrapping up opposing plowshares. The 44.0% rushing success rate allowed by the Gold Panners is the seventh-worst in the league. Walker, who sports a gaudy 3.59 YAC per attempt and 43.2% missed tackle rate, will power his way to 45 or more rushing yards for the third time in four games. Keep in mind: Four rushers in five contests have achieved what’s required against the Niners this season.
Brock Purdy 5+ rushing yards. Ain’t he so Purdy? The off-the-beaten-path market tied to the San Francisco QB is often overlooked, but it shouldn’t be. He’s an effective opportunistic runner. On 4.4 carries per game, he’s averaging 21.6 rushing yards. His 2.82 yards after contact per attempt is nothing to laugh at. In all five games this year, he’s scrambled for at least 11 yards. Seattle — No. 1 in the NFL in pocket pressure rate at 35.4% — will surely dial up the heat on multiple occasions, causing Purdy to flush, tuck and run. All I need is one decent scamper for this leg to come through.
SGP season record: 4-11, -5.70 units