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No. 22 BYU (4-0) at Baylor (2-2)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: Noon ET
TV: Fox
This is one of my favorite situational spots of the week.
An undefeated BYU team coming off a 38-9 drubbing of Kansas State has to go on the road to face a Baylor squad that fell 38-31 to Colorado in overtime.
The Bears hold the enticing title of unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. Unranked home favorites against ranked teams are 52-24 (68%) straight-up since 2017, making this a promising spot for Baylor.
The pick — Baylor -3 (-110, Caesars)
Just as you don’t judge a book by its cover, you don’t judge a team off last week’s game without looking at the box score.
Sure, the Bears lost to the Buffaloes, but the defeat came on the road and in OT due to a ludicrous Hail Mary touchdown by Colorado at the end of regulation. Without that miraculous catch, Baylor would have won by a touchdown as road dogs.
Similarly, BYU might be more bark than bite with this number. Despite losing to the Cougars, the Wildcats still had a postgame win expectancy of 65%. They out-gained BYU 367-241 in total yards and only punted once. However, three turnovers, two interceptions, eight penalties and zero fourth-down conversions (0 for 3) didn’t help K-State’s case.
I don’t expect Baylor to go down easily despite its gut punch of a loss in Boulder. With growing speculation about head coach Dave Aranda's future, a win at home against the 22nd-ranked Cougars would cool his hot seat.
The Bears should be up for a game like this. Defensively, they’re strong enough to slow down BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff thanks to their top-five defensive success rate and opponents' struggles on third and fourth downs. Behind the home crowd, Baylor should find success in stopping BYU’s offense from establishing any rhythm.
Given the combination of bad luck and a favorable situation, I’m taking the Bears to get the job done at home and hand the Cougars their first loss of the season.
Season record: 8-8, -0.32 units