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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Jared Goff OVER 261.5 passing yards at Cardinals (-120, BetMGM)
Through two weeks, Goff-ul has made an unexpected cameo. Woefully tepid against the Rams and Bears, the usually reliable passer has started the season at a sloth-like pace. However, in a game with the highest total currently on the Week 3 board (51.5), Goff should remove gun-from-holster and pop off — Wyatt Earp at the OK Corral style — in the desert. Similar to the temps outside State Farm Stadium, the on-field action will sizzle. A certain swole insurance pitcher would agree. As a result, bank on Goff picking apart an Arizona defense that ranks No. 21 in dropback EPA. His top-six standing in total air yards, deep-ball completion percentage and completion percentage against man schemes only add to the argument. Close to 300 yards and multiple end-zone strikes are entirely buyable.
2. Zamir White OVER 56.5 rushing yards vs. Panthers (-115, BetMGM)
Last season’s fantasy playoff hero has, for all intents and purposes, morphed into a zero. Immersed in a baffling RBBC with ham-and-egger Alexander Mattison, White has earned a modest 59.6% of the team’s opportunity share and averaged a pedestrian 3.1 yards per touch. Most disconcerting, he’s shown even Jell-O molds are impenetrable, as evidenced by his RB39 standing in YAC per attempt (2.27). Not good, Bob. Still, his No. 11 juke rate and prior success suggest he’s an ideal buy-low candidate. He’s scheduled to face the Hello Kitties of Carolina at home this Sunday. Through two games, Carolina is No. 28 in rush EPA defense, surrendering 4.89 yards per carry and 166.5 rushing yards per game to RBs. The Raiders offensive line is currently second-to-last in run-blocking efficiency, per Pro Football Focus, but on roughly 14-16 carries, White packs the thump en route to 60-plus ground yards.
BetAlytics grade: C+
3. Jordan Mason 100+ rushing yards at Rams (+115, BetMGM)
Don Julio is your friend, Christian McCaffrey investors. Yes, the pain of seeing your top fantasy pick in street clothes is pure misery, but for those swift movers who acquired Mason off waivers or in the 11th hour of drafts, the elevated handcuff is providing ALL the points. Entering Week 3, Mason was tied with Rhamondre Stevenson for the most missed tackles forced (13). His superb production after contact (3.44 YAC/attempt, RB17) and exhaustive 98.0% opportunity share are no anomalies. Until CMC returns, Mason will continue to carry the mail in an old-school, Roger Craig-like workhorse role. This week matched against a reeling Rams club down its top two receiving weapons in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the heavily favored Niners should benefit from a positive game script. Assuming that’s the case, Mason should crack the century mark for the third time in three games. Keep in mind, L.A. is No. 30 in rush EPA D, giving up 4.98 yards per carry to RBs.
BetAlytics grade: C+
4. Javonte Williams OVER 4+ receptions at Buccaneers (+155, ESPN Bet)
Believed to be a breakout candidate by some fantasy pundits before the season, Juggernaut Javonte hasn't lived up to the hype or his grandiose nickname. Ensnared in an unpredictable Broncos RBBC, he’s tallied only 54.2% of the team’s opportunity share and registered 12.5 touches per game. Though underutilized on the ground, he has maintained some relevancy with his presence in the passing game. In matchups against Seattle and Pittsburgh, he totaled 35 pass routes, participating as a receiver on 45.5% of team snaps. With a green Bo Nix under center, Williams should continue to operate as an effective safety valve. Catching 85.7% of passes thrown his direction, he has grabbed six passes this season with five coming last week against the Steelers. Given Tampa Bay’s burgeoning offense and propensity to allow RB catches — the Bucs have yielded 19 receptions to RBs already this season — Williams rewards alt-market investors in a contest Denver is likely to scoreboard-chase in.
BetAlytics grade: B+
5. Tyreek Hill UNDER 24.5 yards longest catch (-120, BetMGM)
Going from Tua Tagovailoa to Skylar Thompson is like trading in your luxury lake-view home for a double-wide along Murder Creek. Don’t venture out after dark. For myriad reasons, it’s a sad state of affairs on South Beach. Maybe Thompson or eventually Tyler Huntley will apply the Flex Seal, but the former QB doesn’t lend the greatest confidence. When your comp on PlayerProfiler is Nate Peterman, it's a dire straits situation. In 17 career games, Thompson has completed only 57.1% of his passes and totaled a mere 4.2 air yards per completion. Correct, your 10-year old bro probably possesses more arm strength. Only four times in his brief career has the K-State product completed a pass beyond 25 yards. Yes, it was to Tyreek, a receiver with Lamborghini speed, but on the road against a Seattle secondary that ranks No. 5 in pass EPA D and No. 24 in most air yards allowed per game, Hill doesn’t break loose on a long-bomb connection. His projected primary assignment, Tariq Woolen, has given up just 7.8 yards per catch this season.
BetAlytics grade: N/A
Season record: 7-3, +4.76 units