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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Derrick Henry OVER 69.5 rushing yards vs. Raiders (-120, BetMGM)
See hole. Smash hole. UHHHHH!!! The Football Frankenstein is presented with a monster opportunity. He only rushed 13 times for 46 yards and posted an uncharacteristic 2.54 YAC per attempt in Baltimore’s opener at Kansas City, but against the rancid Raiders, he’s sure to be a focal point. Last Sunday, Antonio Pierce’s club reanimated the corpse of J.K. Dobbins, allowing 135 rushing yards to the Chargers RB and 176 rushing yards overall. Las Vegas’ discouraging effort explains why it finished dead last in rush EPA D after Week 1. In a game the Ravens should control from start to finish, Henry steamrolls his way to 80-plus ground yards.
2. Matthew Stafford UNDER 0.5 interceptions at Cardinals (+120, BetMGM)
In the Rams’ opener in Detroit last Sunday night, Stafford committed a rare red-zone blunder, forcing a throw into tight end-zone coverage which resulted in a pick. Consider it a lesson learned. In seven of 15 games played last season, he didn’t register a single interception, including a zero-miscue game against Arizona in Week 6. In the Cardinals’ opener against Buffalo, they brought little heat just like last year. They finished the week No. 30 in pressure rate at 13.8% and No. 31 in pass EPA D. Stafford and a revitalized Cooper Kupp should carve up Nick Rallis’ secondary uninhibitedly.
3. Brian Robinson Jr. anytime touchdown vs. Giants (+145, BetMGM)
Brimming with energy similar to a certain Hall of Fame tight end during a particular tryst broadcast on IG Live, Robinson is set to smash the Giants in every facet. Whether via ground or air opportunities, the Commanders RB, who recorded 72.7% of the team’s opportunity share in Week 1, should rack the production especially on red-zone touches. He only tallied a 2.23 YAC per attempt and forced two missed tackles against Tampa in Week 1, but by amassing 23 touches, he showed that he is Dan Quinn’s running back of choice. Against a Giants defense ranked No. 22 in rush EPA D, Robinson crosses the chalk. At +145, he’s an irresistible value.
4. Malik Nabers OVER 5.5 receptions at Commanders (+116, FanDuel)
Like a good Nabers, Malik is there. Really the lone bright spot on an otherwise dismal Giants squad, the rookie wideout made an immediate impact against Minnesota. On 49 routes, he enticed 18.4% of the team's target share, catching five of seven looks for 66 yards with no TDs. Impressively, he gained 22 yards after the catch and tallied 11 route wins, per PlayerProfiler. Against Washington’s weak defense, he could go nuclear. The Commanders rank rock bottom in pass EPA D. More specifically, Naber’s projected primary assignment, DB Benjamin St-Juste, surrendered six receptions on eight targets and allowed a 131.8 passer rating. Make us money, Malik.
5. Justin Fields 50+ rushing yards at Broncos (+130, DraftKings)
Crank “Your Love” by The Outfield. For the unaware, the rock throwback is the theme song for Fields in this bettor’s mind. It’s played at high volume whenever his name is dropped on BetMGM Tonight. Yes, Josie may be on a vacation far away, but come around and tail the OVER. Expected to be under center due to Russell Wilson’s compromised calf and general weirdness, the Steelers’ scoring dualist is bound to run amuck at least 8+ times. Week 1 in Atlanta, he tucked the rock 14 times accumulating 57 ground yards. In Seattle last Sunday, the Mile High My Little Ponies applied pressure on 28.6% of Geno Smith dropbacks, the 12th-highest rate in the league. Whether on opportunistic or designed scrambles, Fields makes the heart go pitter pat.
BetAlytics bet grade: N/A
Season record: 4-1, +3.40 units